If you are serious about protecting your people, assets,
and interests on the Indian subcontinent, this is the report.
A New Intelligence Resource for 2018!
Erudite Risk’s India Risk Monitor is the most relevant and effective risk monitoring and crisis management
planning tool available for dealing with risks to operations in South Asia.
The India Risk Monitor is published three times per month and is normally 14-18 pages in length.
The India Risk Monitor is a uniquely valuable resource.
The India Risk Monitor (IRM) is Erudite Risk’s comprehensive intelligence report for South Asia. The IRM monitors, characterizes, and analyzes risks and their associated indicators. We draw from all-sources, integrate the data, determine the total risk level, and report on the nature, seriousness, and direction the risk is trending in.
The report is designed for readability. We place special emphasis on information design and presentation to make all information easy to digest and utilize.Utilizing an all-risks approach, the India Risk Monitor keeps track of essential triggers and indicators impacting risk on the Indian subcontinent.
We then apply those triggers to time- and speed-based crisis management scenarios so that you have guidance in implementing and executing your entity’s crisis management plan. We provide timely understanding of the situation on the ground so that you can see emerging trends and discern the overall impact of risk your organization faces.
What is in the report?
The Dashboard Section of the IRM provides a single interface for reviewing key analysis and the general indicators of rising risk on the Indian subcontinent and around the South Asian region.
The Executive Briefing portion of the Dashboard is the main analytical section, which summarizes the key findings of the report in macro. Analysis is further broken up into two subsections: This Week and Why You Should Care, where we emphasize what is new in this week’s report and what the key takeaways are.
RISK ISSUE WATCH
Issues Organized by Total Risk Level (Total Impact Level)
- Critical Risks - These risks are both imminent/almost certain and threaten the highest levels of severity.
- Serious Risks - These risks are more than 50% likely to occur and present a potentially serious impact on orgs.
- Moderate Risks - These risks may have average likelihood and are of important severity.
- Minor Risks - These risks range from remote to unlikely and may have a negligible impact.
Impacts range from minor to critical and impact organizations through potential financial loss, loss of brand power/goodwill, the creation of legal or regulatory exposure, disruption of operations, or the creation of safety hazards to personnel.
Likelihood ranges from remote to imminent, as determined by the frequency, authority, and clarity of witnessed indicators.
Each risk issue is characterized with a "tracked Since" date, and the "trend". Trend types include developing, ongoing, unresolved, and peaking.
NSE Nifty 50 Index
Weekly performance of the main index of India’s largest stock exchange.
BSE S&P SENSEX Index
Weekly performance of the main index of India’s oldest stock exchange.
Key Upcoming Dates for Potential Heightened Local Risk
Key dates presenting potential risk for companies are highlighted. These dates include:
- Economically Meaningful Date
- Politically Meaningful Date
- Major Event
- Meaningful Holiday
- Scheduled Threat
- Regional Force Deployments (Pakistan/China)
- Training Exercise (Pakistan)
New Economic Data/Indicators
New information or statements by authoritative bodies, such as economic think tanks in India or the Reserve Bank of India, regarding economic conditions or sentiment.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK BRIEFING
The Geopolitical Risk Briefing covers those risks pertaining to India’s relationship with Pakistan, China, the US, and all of its other neighbors. Geopolitical risk is not an academic subject for India, where relations with Pakistan can directly impact daily life.
The Current Status includes information on what has changed in the environment and why you should care about the current state of affairs, informing you what important indicators to watch for.
TRAVEL RISK SUMMARY INDICATORS
Air Quality Levels in Key Cities for the Past Week
National Summarized Terror Statistics for the Week Prior
US State Department Travel Alerts and Warnings
UK Foreign Office Advisory for the Republic of India
NEW INDICATOR ANALYSIS
The main body of the report is the analysis of new indicators signaling either new risk issues approaching or existing risk issues that are further developing.
Treatment of Critical or Serious Risk Indicators
Critical or Serious Risk issues are analyzed in-depth. We provide two pages of analysis of indicators for each issue.
Current Risk Issue Status/Briefing
Risk trend map for this issue/indicator
The Risk Trend Map shows where on the Criticality/Likelihood spectrum this issue currently falls, and which directions it is likely to trend in, as determined by current indicators.
Sentiment analysis compares the current issue’s portion of local mindshare compared to other risk issues, and the overall level of interest. It also elucidates how key stakeholders feel about the issue, and how the representative published media outlets in India are characterizing the issue.
- Sentiment Analysis: English-Language Online Article Mentions Analysis
- Sentiment Analysis: English-Language Twitter Mentions Analysis
- Sentiment Analysis: Key Actor Quotations
- Sentiment Analysis: Representative Media Coverage
- Date/Source/Title/Key Conclusions
Page 2 contains the main analytical portion of the indicator reporting for each risk issue. Analysis is written for each new indicator, nothing first the facts of the indicator, followed by analysis of the meaning/significance of the event, statement, or occurrence.
Treatment of Moderate or Minor Risk Indicators
Reporting on moderate or minor risk issues involves a combination of items found in the critical or serious risk issues section.
- Current Risk Issue Status/Briefing
- Risk trend map for this issue/indicator
- New Indicator Analysis (by each indicator)
- Facts/Events/Statements by Date
INDIA RISK ECOSYSTEM
This map illustrates how the general All-Risks Approach has been customized to fit the situation in India. Risks of all types are depicted on the criticality/likelihood spectrum, according to their total impact and risk type.
CRIME/TERROR/VIOLENCE BY CITY
This portion of the IRM reports on crime, terror, and violent incidents occurring in India’s key business cities.
CRISIS MANAGEMENT FOR INDIA
The IRM’s last section includes key contact information and guidance on managing a crisis in India.
Contact information includes police, fire, hospitals for India’s major cities and key postal codes within those cities. It also includes contact information for embassies and consulates around the country.
Additional Benefits for Subscribers
Trigger Watch Report
When a significant trigger is witnessed we produce a special report for all subscribers called the “Trigger Watch.” This report is published and dispatched only when key trigger events are witnessed and key details of those events are verified. The Trigger Watch includes a summary of the event with an explanation of its significance and a crisis management section that includes a risk assessment based on the new event.
Special Topics Reports
The IRM reports also include special topics sections from time to time.
Questions and Answers
Any IRM subscriber may reach out to Erudite’s IRM team with specific questions on any material included in the reports. Normal question and answer is by email, but may also include phone calls, as required.
Who is the
Entities with operations and personnel on the Indian subcontinent
Entities with investments in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, or
Entities with supply chains running through South Asia
Entities considering partnering, acquisitions, or investments in India
Anyone with a stake in South Asia
Subscribing to the India Risk Monitor
The India Risk Monitor is delivered by email as a PDF document, three times per month.
Month-to-month subscriptions cost US$1500 and may be purchased by credit card via PayPal.
The All-Risks Approach
The “All-Risks Approach” encompasses all the risks organizations might be concerned with on the Pensinsula. The scope of our monitoring is derived from a list of general risks faced by organizations globally, then tailored for the specific environment faced by organizations in the Republic of India.
General Risks fall into the following categories.
Increasing Price Competition
Rising Supplier Power
Rising Buyer Power
Increased Economic Concentration in Sector
Loss of Goodwill/Brand Damage
Threat of New Entrants
Threat of Substitutes
Loss of IP Protection
Widespread Strikes and Work Stoppages
Local Governance Gaps
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Large-Scale Terrorist Attacks
Diffusion of Weapons of Mass Destruction
State-Sponsored Economic Espionage
Politically Exposed Policymaking
Increased Legal Exposure
Political Unrest or Instability
Increasing Political Policy Resistance
Social/Economic Policy Instability
Extreme Weather Events
Man-Made Environmental Disasters
Failure of Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation
Water Supply Crises
Chronic Extreme Pollution
Severe Energy Price Shock
High Structural Unemployment
Chronic Fiscal Imbalances
Major Financial System Failure
Asset Price Collapse
Runaway Price Inflation
Epidemics and Pandemics
Severe/Rising Income Inequality
Rapidly Aging Populace
Communal and Religious Strife
Large Involuntary Migration
Rising Crime Levels
Critical Infrastructure Failure
Cyber Attacks and Cyber Warfare
Data Loss and Privacy Breaches
India, like all countries, has its own specific basket of chronic and acute risks for businesses and individuals. We have mapped these risks and monitor for all indicators of them. When indicators appear, we analyze them so that you can prepare, train, and best determine how to handle each risk.