The Korea Risk Monitor is a uniquely valuable resource.

The Korea Risk Monitor (KRM) is Erudite Risk’s comprehensive intelligence report for the Korean Peninsula. This report incorporates Erudite’s well-known North Korea Monitor report and expands coverage to encompass all risks faced by organizations with an interest on the Korean Peninsula.

The Korea Risk Monitor monitors, characterizes, and analyzes risks and their associated indicators. We draw from all-sources, integrate the data, determine the total risk level, and report on the nature, seriousness, and direction the risk is trending in. 

The report is designed for readability. We place special emphasis on information design and presentation to make all information easy to digest and utilize.

Utilizing an all-risks approach, the Korea Risk Monitor keeps track of essential triggers and indicators occurring in and around the Korean Peninsula.

We then apply those triggers to time- and speed-based crisis management scenarios so that you have guidance in implementing and executing your entity’s crisis management plan. We provide timely understanding of the situation on the ground so that you can see emerging trends and discern the overall impact of risk your organization faces. 

What is in the report?

DASHBOARD

The Dashboard Section of the KRM provides a single interface for reviewing key analysis and the general indicators of rising risk on the Korean Peninsula and around the Northeast Asia region. 

PAGE 1

EXECUTIVE BRIEFING

The Executive Briefing portion of the Dashboard is the main analytical section, which summarizes the key findings of the report in macro. Analysis is further broken up into two subsections: This Week and Why You Should Care, where we emphasize what is new in this week’s report and what the key takeaways are. 

RISK ISSUE WATCH

Issues Organized by Total Risk Level (Total Impact Level)

• Critical Risks - These risks are both imminent/almost certain and threaten the highest levels of severity.
• Serious Risks - These risks are more than 50% likely to occur and present a potentially serious impact on orgs.
• Moderate Risks - These risks may have average likelihood and are of important severity.
• Minor Risks - These risks range from remote to unlikely and may have a negligible impact. 

Impacts range from minor to critical and impact organizations through potential financial loss, loss of brand power/goodwill, the creation of legal or regulatory exposure, disruption of operations, or the creation of safety hazards to personnel. 

Likelihood ranges from remote to imminent, as determined by the frequency, authority, and clarity of witnessed indicators. 

Each risk issue is characterized with a "tracked Since" date, and the "trend". Trend types include developing, ongoing, unresolved, and peaking. 

PAGE 2

SUMMARY INDICATORS

President Moon's Approval Rating

Much of the economic, legal, and regulatory risk is being driven by a Korean Administration intent on change of the status quo. How that agenda is fairing, and the ability to create further change are both reflected in the President’s Approval Rating. This rating is calculated by merging two well-known polls in Korea.

KOSPI Closing Index

Korea’s main index’s performance over the week prior. Korea’s financial markets are heavily wired into the international community, and are therefore very responsive to global, regional, and local environmental changes.

Foreign Exchange Forecast

The expected upcoming FX rate, KRW/USD, over the next week, as forecast by KEB Hana Bank, one of Korea’s largest and most prominent banks. 

Key Upcoming Dates for Potential Heightened Local Risk

Key dates presenting potential risk for companies are highlighted. These dates include: 

• Economically Meaningful Date
• Politically Meaningful Date
• Major Event
• Meaningful Holiday
• Scheduled Threat
• Regional Force Deployments (US/ROK/Japan/China)
• Training Exercise (US/ROK/Japan)

New Economic Data/Indicators

New information or statements by authoritative bodies, such as economic think tanks in Korea or the Bank of Korea, regarding economic conditions or sentiment. 

PAGE 3

NORTH KOREA RISK BRIEFING

The NK Risk Briefing is an executive briefing on the current status of the ongoing crisis on the Korean Peninsula. This briefing is a wrap-up of all current and expected indicators seen. The briefing is broken down into two subsections: Current Status and Three Months Out.

The Current Status includes information on what has changed in the environment and why you should care about the current state of affairs, informing you what important indicators to watch for. 

NK RISK EXECUTIVE BRIEFING

Erudite Risk Summarized Threat Level

The Summarized Threat Level is a derived from Erudite Risk’s North Korea Crisis Framework, which is a proven resource for decision-making related to the threat of conflict on the Peninsula. We go beyond simply talking about North Korea or explaining our geopolitical take on the situation. Erudite Risk’s analysis is driven by a crisis management framework built for a specific purpose: helping organizations make better decisions and earlier decisions in a crisis environment where good decision-making is uniquely difficult.

Erudite Risk’s NK Crisis Management Framework was developed over the course of 15 years of helping companies in South Korea prepare for a potential conflict. Our framework is complete; it covers all possible levels of risk and the responses appropriate to them. The North Korea Monitor seamlessly integrates into any complete crisis management plan for Korea or Japan as environmental trigger and indicator data.

The KRM includes the complete framework and complete explanations on how to use it in your own organization.

Republic of Korea Threat Level Indicators

• Watch Condition
• Defense Condition

US State Department Travel Alerts and Warnings

UK Foreign Office Advisory for South Korea

NEW INDICATOR ANALYSIS

The main body of the report is the analysis of new indicators signaling either new risk issues approaching or existing risk issues that are further developing.

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Treatment of Critical or Serious Risk Indicators

Critical or Serious Risk issues are analyzed in-depth. We provide two pages of analysis of indicators for each issue. 

PAGE 1

Current Risk Issue Status/Briefing

Risk trend map for this issue/indicator

The Risk Trend Map shows where on the Criticality/Likelihood spectrum this issue currently falls, and which directions it is likely to trend in, as determined by current indicators. 

Sentiment analysis compares the current issue’s portion of local mindshare compared to other risk issues, and the overall level of interest. It also elucidates how key stakeholders feel about the issue, and how the representative published media outlets in Korea are characterizing the issue. 

• Sentiment Analysis: Korean-Language Online Article Mentions Analysis
• Sentiment Analysis: Korean-Language Twitter Mentions Analysis
• Sentiment Analysis: Key Actor Quotations
• Sentiment Analysis: Representative Media Coverage
  • Date/Source/Title/Key Conclusions

PAGE 2

Page 2 contains the main analytical portion of the indicator reporting for each risk issue. Analysis is written for each new indicator, nothing first the facts of the indicator, followed by analysis of the meaning/significance of the event, statement, or occurrence. 

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Treatment of Moderate or Minor Risk Indicators

Reporting on moderate or minor risk issues involves a combination of items found in the critical or serious risk issues section. 

• Current Risk Issue Status/Briefing
• Risk trend map for this issue/indicator
• New Indicator Analysis (by each indicator)
  • Facts/Events/Statements by Date
  • Analysis

LEGAL AND REGULATORY RISK

The Legal and Regulatory Risk section of the report covers all legislation currently in the public review and comment period at the time of publishing. This allows organizations to get on top of potential regulation and changes to the legal landscape before they are enacted. 

KOREA RISK ECOSYSTEM

This map illustrates how the general All-Risks Approach has been customized to fit the situation in Korea. Risks of all types are depicted on the criticality/likelihood spectrum, according to their total impact and risk type. 

NK CRISIS FRAMEWORK AND TIMELINE

Erudite Risk's Crisis Management Framework for a North Korea-Related Conflict/Crisis on the Korean Peninsula

This is a full explanation of how the framework functions and how to utilize it in your organization. 

CRISIS MANAGEMENT FOR THE KOREAN PENINSULA

The KRM’s last section includes key contact information and guidance on managing a crisis in Korea.

Contact information includes police, fire, hospitals in key areas around Korea, and a list of 12 foreign embassies. 

Information for managing crises includes details on alarms, shelters, and recommended responses to a crisis. 

Additional Benefits for Subscribers

Trigger Watch Report

When a significant trigger is witnessed we produce a special report for all subscribers called the “Trigger Watch.” This report is published and dispatched only when key trigger events are witnessed and key details of those events are verified. The Trigger Watch includes a summary of the event with an explanation of its significance and a crisis management section that includes a risk assessment based on the new event.

Special Topics Reports

The KRM reports also include special topics sections from time to time. Special topics may include additional analysis of a new development and NK crisis management-related topics. These Special Topics are often included in the regular NKM report or sent out separately as their own reports.

Questions and Answers

Any KRMM subscriber may reach out to Erudite’s KRM team with specific questions on any material included in the reports. Normal question and answer is by email, but may also include phone calls, as required. 

 

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Subscribing to the Korea Risk Monitor 

The Korea Risk Monitor is delivered by email as a PDF document, three times per month.

Month-to-month subscriptions cost US$1500 and may be purchased by credit card via PayPal. 

Six-month and annual subscriptions may be purchased for US$1000 per month by contacting us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

 

The All-Risks Approach

The “All-Risks Approach” encompasses all the risks organizations might be concerned with on the Pensinsula. The scope of our monitoring is derived from a list of general risks faced by organizations globally, then tailored for the specific environment faced by organizations in the Republic of Korea.

General Risks fall into the following categories.

COMPETITIVE
Increasing Price Competition
Rising Supplier Power
Rising Buyer Power
Increased Economic Concentration in Sector
Loss of Goodwill/Brand Damage
Threat of New Entrants
Threat of Substitutes
Industrial Espionage
Loss of IP Protection
Widespread Strikes and Work Stoppages

GEOPOLITICAL
Local Governance Gaps
Corruption
Interstate War
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Large-Scale Terrorist Attacks
Diffusion of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Rising Nationalism/Nativism
State-Sponsored Economic Espionage

LEGAL/REGULATORY
Increasing Regulation
Politically Exposed Policymaking
Increased Legal Exposure

POLITICAL EXPOSURE
Political Unrest or Instability
Increasing Political Policy Resistance
Social/Economic Policy Instability
Political Scandal

ENVIRONMENTAL
Extreme Weather Events
Natural Disasters
Man-Made Environmental Disasters
Failure of Climate Change Mitigation/Adaptation
Water Supply Crises
Flooding
Chronic Extreme Pollution

ECONOMIC
Severe Energy Price Shock
High Structural Unemployment
Chronic Fiscal Imbalances
Fiscal Crises
Major Financial System Failure
Price Instability
Asset Price Collapse
Rising Protectionism
Falling Growth
Runaway Price Inflation

SOCIETAL
Epidemics and Pandemics
Chronic Disease
Severe/Rising Income Inequality
Rapidly Aging Populace
Food Shortages
Communal and Religious Strife
Large Involuntary Migration
Rising Crime Levels

TECHNOLOGICAL
Critical Infrastructure Failure
Cyber Attacks and Cyber Warfare
Data Loss and Privacy Breaches
Technological Disruption

Korea, like all countries, has its own specific basket of chronic and acute risks for businesses and individuals. We have mapped these risks and monitor for all indicators of them. When indicators appear, we analyze them so that you can prepare, train, and best determine how to handle each risk.

 

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"A conflict in North Korea would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people's lifetimes...This regime is a threat to the region, to Japan and South Korea and in the event of war they would bring danger to China and to Russia as well. But the bottom line is it would be a catastrophic war if this turns into a combat if we're not able to resolve this situation through diplomatic means.”

-- US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, May 28, 2017

"It would be horrific, and it would be a loss of life unlike any we have experienced in our lifetimes, and I mean anyone who's been alive since World War II has never seen the loss of life that could occur if there's a conflict on the Korean Peninsula...But as I've told my counterparts, both friend and foe, it is not unimaginable to have military options to respond to North Korean nuclear capability. What's unimaginable to me is allowing a capability that would allow a nuclear weapon to land in Denver, Colorado. That's unimaginable to me. So my job will be to develop military options to make sure that doesn't happen."

-- US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joe Dunford, July 22, 2017

 “A war on the Korean Peninsula would be terrible. However, a nuclear weapon detonating in Los Angeles would be terrible. The fact of the matter is we are at a point in time where choices are going to have to be made one way or the other.”

-- US Army Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, July 27, 2017

 

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Who reads the
Korea Risk Monitor?

Prudential
Brose
Dongsuh/Mondelez International
Human Rights Watch
Renault-Samsung
Gyeonggi-Suwon Int'l School
Dulwich College
BNP Paribas
Morgan Stanley
Shell
Chadwick International School
Int’l School of Koje
Marsh
Oliver Wyman
Mercer
Guy Carpenter
Agility
Volkswagen
Branksome Hall
Argentarius Group
Caterpillar
Tiffany & Co.
Briggs & Stratton
Northrup Grumman
ABB
Stanley/Black & Decker
Hyatt Hotels
Rosetta Stone
Lee & Ko
Credit Suisse
Royal Bank of Canada
Korea International School
Bayer
ElringKlinger
AIG
Beiersdorf
Draeger
Hewlett-Packard
Starbucks
Levi Strauss
Pfizer
Autoliv
Heineken
Statoil
Cigna
Sanofi

Some subscribers subscribed to the previous iteration of this report, called the North Korea Monitor.