China

高盛维持2026慢牛预判：反内卷、出海、AI板块将撑起A股企业14%盈利增长

Sina Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedOperating Results

Goldman Sachs projects China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026, with a “low first, high later” pattern where first-half growth ranges between 4.5% and 5%, and second-half growth nears 5%. Exports are expected to grow steadily, supported by global economic demand, competitive Chinese products in emerging markets, and China’s control of key minerals like rare earths. Nominal export growth in US dollars is forecasted at 5.6%, with export volumes rising 5%–6% annually.

Consumption growth is expected to be driven by the service sector, which is more labor-intensive and can bolster employment and incomes. Household consumption remains weak but is supported by increased government consumption following a debt-conversion plan and ongoing trade-in policies. Investment is anticipated to improve over 2025, driven by previously delayed projects, new financial instruments, and major initiatives in technology, AI, and power grids tied to the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Goldman Sachs maintains a “slow bull” outlook for China’s A-share market in 2026, supported primarily by a sharp rise in corporate earnings, projected to grow 14% compared to 4% in 2025. Key drivers include AI sector development shifting toward applications and monetization, overseas revenue growth from Chinese companies reaching 20% by 2030, and the “anti-involution” policy boosting margins in upstream and manufacturing sectors.

Capital inflows are expected to be robust, with over 3 trillion yuan of new domestic capital entering the stock market, and significant southbound and northbound foreign investments setting new records. Overseas investor interest is increasing but has not yet reached scale, highlighting the value of Chinese assets for global portfolio diversification.

Sector preferences favor technology hardware (including smartphones, AI servers, semiconductors), internet, insurance, and materials sectors due to their alignment with AI development, technological self-reliance, and “anti-involution” policies. Thematic focuses include AI, going-global expansion, private-sector leadership, mid-cap policy beneficiaries, and companies with high shareholder returns, as China’s listed firms are expected to distribute about 4 trillion yuan in cash returns in 2026.

In commodity strategy, Goldman Sachs remains positive on precious metals, especially gold, for its safe-haven value amid global uncertainties. Technology sector valuations are judged reasonable and supported by earnings growth, with no bubble risk detected. Investors are advised to center portfolios around AI, going-global, and “anti-involution” themes, diversify geographically, and leverage structural opportunities backed by government policy.

Global Times | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

China emphasized its commitment to upholding the principles of the UN Charter, respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries, and resolving disputes through dialogue. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stressed that China does not engage in geopolitical rivalry or seek spheres of influence in Asia but aims to build a community with a shared future based on good-neighborliness and friendship.

China plans to work with regional countries to foster friendly, secure, and prosperous relations, adhering to principles of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit, and inclusiveness. It seeks to create a peaceful, secure, prosperous, and harmonious shared home and is a defender of international peace and security.

China promotes a vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security, advancing the Global Security Initiative to achieve universal and common security. The country is actively applying its unique approach to resolve hotspot issues and aims to build an Asian security model based on shared security, respect for differences, dialogue, and consultation, jointly safeguarding international peace and tranquility.

JunHe LLP | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 23, 2026 | Regulation

On January 20, 2026, a practical seminar on the World Bank’s newly revised "Integrity Compliance Guidelines" was successfully held, supported by the Expert Committee of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products and jointly hosted by JunHe Law Offices and Tianjin University's International Engineering Management School. The seminar concentrated on the World Bank’s December 2025 updates to the guidelines and common compliance errors among Chinese companies, gathering key representatives from the World Bank’s core investigation and compliance departments, compliance leaders from Chinese enterprises, and senior lawyers from multilateral development banks. The event aimed to provide a precise, in-depth compliance empowerment platform for Chinese companies involved in World Bank-financed projects.

The seminar was chaired by JunHe partner lawyer Zhou Xianfeng and featured welcome speeches from JunHe director Hua Xiaojun, China Chamber of Commerce deputy chairman Zheng Chao, and Tianjin University professor Zhang Shuibo. They collectively emphasized that multilateral development bank compliance standards form a critical foundation for improving Chinese companies' compliance levels in the current international market environment.

Key highlights included authoritative presentations from three core World Bank departments. Anthony Pan from the Integrity Compliance Office detailed critical updates in the new guidelines, including management responsibilities, technology usage compliance, accessibility of policies and records, anti-retaliation protections, and regulations on donations and sponsorships. Xuan Luo from the Integrity Vice Presidency addressed frequent compliance risks faced by Chinese companies in World Bank projects such as conflicts of interest, commissions, subcontracting, key personnel changes, and fraudulent disclosures, clarifying standards for collusion and corporate liability for employee misconduct. Chang Liu from the Office of Suspension and Debarment explained the World Bank’s sanctions framework, covering prohibited misconduct, recent case data, sanction measures, aggravating and mitigating factors, and cross-sanctions, providing a comprehensive overview of the system.

In a practical sharing session, JunHe partner Liu Zhen highlighted seven common misconceptions Chinese companies have about World Bank compliance requirements and offered actionable advice informed by recent policies and case examples. The closing session featured in-depth analyses on compliance system establishment and implementation from Yang Songlin, Chief Legal Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer of China Power Engineering Corporation, and Liu Yufei, Deputy Director and Acting General Manager of Compliance Management at China Power Construction Group International Engineering Company, enriching attendees with valuable insights.

JunHe’s experienced legal team continues to provide comprehensive compliance legal services to Chinese companies engaged in multilateral development bank projects, including risk assessments, internal investigations, audit cooperation, compliance system construction, and sanction lifting. The seminar reinforced JunHe’s commitment to supporting Chinese enterprises with multi-level compliance solutions as they expand globally.