China

高盛维持2026慢牛预判：反内卷、出海、AI板块将撑起A股企业14%盈利增长

Sina Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedOperating Results

Goldman Sachs projects China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026, with a “low first, high later” pattern where first-half growth ranges between 4.5% and 5%, and second-half growth nears 5%. Exports are expected to grow steadily, supported by global economic demand, competitive Chinese products in emerging markets, and China’s control of key minerals like rare earths. Nominal export growth in US dollars is forecasted at 5.6%, with export volumes rising 5%–6% annually.

Consumption growth is expected to be driven by the service sector, which is more labor-intensive and can bolster employment and incomes. Household consumption remains weak but is supported by increased government consumption following a debt-conversion plan and ongoing trade-in policies. Investment is anticipated to improve over 2025, driven by previously delayed projects, new financial instruments, and major initiatives in technology, AI, and power grids tied to the 15th Five-Year Plan.

Goldman Sachs maintains a “slow bull” outlook for China’s A-share market in 2026, supported primarily by a sharp rise in corporate earnings, projected to grow 14% compared to 4% in 2025. Key drivers include AI sector development shifting toward applications and monetization, overseas revenue growth from Chinese companies reaching 20% by 2030, and the “anti-involution” policy boosting margins in upstream and manufacturing sectors.

Capital inflows are expected to be robust, with over 3 trillion yuan of new domestic capital entering the stock market, and significant southbound and northbound foreign investments setting new records. Overseas investor interest is increasing but has not yet reached scale, highlighting the value of Chinese assets for global portfolio diversification.

Sector preferences favor technology hardware (including smartphones, AI servers, semiconductors), internet, insurance, and materials sectors due to their alignment with AI development, technological self-reliance, and “anti-involution” policies. Thematic focuses include AI, going-global expansion, private-sector leadership, mid-cap policy beneficiaries, and companies with high shareholder returns, as China’s listed firms are expected to distribute about 4 trillion yuan in cash returns in 2026.

In commodity strategy, Goldman Sachs remains positive on precious metals, especially gold, for its safe-haven value amid global uncertainties. Technology sector valuations are judged reasonable and supported by earnings growth, with no bubble risk detected. Investors are advised to center portfolios around AI, going-global, and “anti-involution” themes, diversify geographically, and leverage structural opportunities backed by government policy.

Xinhua | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

China has established the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) charging network, capable of supporting the charging needs of more than 40 million new energy vehicles. By the end of 2025, the total number of EV charging facilities in China reached 20.092 million, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA).

The expansion of China’s charging infrastructure accelerated significantly in 2025, with the number of units doubling from 10 million to 20 million in just 18 months. The average power capacity of public EV charging facilities increased to 46.5 kilowatts, marking a 33 percent rise year on year.

China has also installed 71,500 charging piles at more than 98 percent of its expressway service areas. Additionally, 19 provincial-level regions have achieved complete coverage of charging infrastructure in all townships.

China Daily | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

Chinese private firms are increasingly embedding themselves in Southeast Asia through comprehensive investments in industrial development, infrastructure, and workforce training. Zhenshi Holding Group, a diversified Chinese industrial firm, has established the Indonesia Huabao Industrial Park in Morowali, Central Sulawesi, which serves as a key example of this trend. The park integrates nickel-iron smelting and related industries with supporting infrastructure such as power facilities, roads, housing, and ports, transforming undeveloped land into a significant industrial hub.

Local employment is a central focus, with Indonesian workers making up over 91 percent of Huabao’s workforce, totaling 2,555 on-site employees and 8,217 including affiliated projects. The company has invested heavily in workforce development, providing thousands of training hours and skill-building programs in vocational, leadership, and digital areas, including Mandarin language courses tailored for the workplace. These efforts have earned recognition from local government and business associations for contributions to employment and human resource development.

Zhenshi’s investment strategy extends beyond manufacturing to stimulating local supply chains, infrastructural improvements, and community development. The park has developed over 300 suppliers, including Indonesian firms, and invested $10 million to expand Morowali’s airport, enhancing regional transport capacity. Ongoing social responsibility projects cover infrastructure, education, healthcare, environmental protection, and economic support, reflecting a broader shift in Chinese overseas investment towards industrial upgrading and sustainable local engagement.

Southeast Asia is a growing priority for Chinese firms aiming to diversify supply chains and markets, with over 6,500 Chinese companies investing directly in ASEAN countries. Indonesia’s large market and rich nickel reserves make it particularly attractive amid growing electric vehicle and new materials industries. The China-ASEAN economic relationship remains strong, bolstered by trade agreements such as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 Upgrade Protocol.

For Zhenshi, the Indonesian experience has shifted its overseas approach from isolated projects to integrated industrial platforms that promote long-term regional development. The Huabao Industrial Park exemplifies how Chinese private enterprises are positioning themselves as enduring partners in Southeast Asia’s economic growth.