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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
极端天气四问
Four Questions About Extreme Weather
Xinhua | Local Language | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | Extreme Weather Events
From the night of December 10th to the 13th, China will experience the largest-area cold wave this winter, affecting the country from west to east with strong winds, significant cooling, and rain-and-snow weather. The China Meteorological Administration has issued a level-four emergency response for major meteorological disasters, including cold waves, strong winds, and heavy snow. So far this winter, there have been three cold waves with warnings, characterized by widespread strong winds and temperature drops, intense precipitation, and low-temperature freezing that impact energy supply, agriculture, transportation, and human health.
Extreme weather events in China have increased notably in frequency and intensity, particularly high temperatures, droughts, heavy rain and floods, and typhoon impacts. Typhoon landfalls in China have become more frequent and shifted northward, with recent examples including super typhoon Doksuri in 2023 causing severe floods and super typhoon Mojie in 2024 being the strongest autumn typhoon to hit mainland China. The summer of 2024 saw a prolonged heatwave lasting 74 days with numerous temperature records broken, signaling a trend of more frequent, intense, and prolonged extreme weather phenomena.
New characteristics of extreme weather in China include an increase in compound events where multiple weather hazards occur simultaneously or in succession, such as combined high temperatures, drought, heavy rain, floods, storm surges, and astronomical high tides. These compound disasters heighten risk complexity and make forecasting and mitigation more challenging. The geographic scope of extreme heavy rainfall and floods has expanded beyond southern China to northern and western areas, with increased typhoon risk in northern regions demonstrated by multiple typhoon impacts in the Northeast in 2020.
To build a strong defense against meteorological disasters, China is shifting from simple forecasting to risk-based disaster warning systems. Measures include improving institutional mechanisms, establishing dense observation networks, enhancing integrated early warning systems, and elevating disaster resistance of infrastructure. Scientific research and public communication on climate risk and disaster mitigation are being prioritized to improve society’s overall preparedness and responsiveness to the escalating challenges posed by climate change and extreme weather.
出口管制的变革:美国商务部BIS 50%规则的复杂性及影响
Reforming Export Controls: The Complexity and Impact of the US Department of Commerce BIS 50% Rule
AnJie Broad Law Firm | Local Language | AcademicThink | Dec. 12, 2025 | Regulation
The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) implemented a significant export control amendment on September 29, 2025, known as the BIS 50% rule. This rule extends export control restrictions not only to entities listed on U.S. restrictive lists such as the Entity List, Military End-User List (MEU List), and certain OFAC SDN lists but also to their foreign affiliates that are directly or indirectly 50% or more owned by any listed entity. The rule seeks to close loopholes where listed entities could circumvent export restrictions by establishing overseas affiliates. The case of Anshi Holdings, a Dutch subsidiary of the Chinese company Wingtech Technology, demonstrates the rule’s impact, as their assets were frozen due to Wingtech's placement on the U.S. Entity List.
The BIS 50% rule broadens the scope of export license requirements, license exceptions, and review policies to include these 50% or more owned foreign affiliates, applying the most restrictive measures where multiple restrictive list entities own stakes. It also affects the Foreign-Direct Product (FDP) rules, expanding export controls to foreign-produced items involving such affiliates. The rule enforces a strict liability regime obligating exporters, reexporters, and transferors to verify ownership of foreign entities, with legal consequences for non-compliance. BIS also issued a Temporary General License (TGL) permitting certain transactions involving these affiliates until December 1, 2025, and has suspended the 50% rule from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026, following U.S.-China consultations.
Prior to the BIS 50% rule, export controls were only applied to listed entities and their legally non-distinct affiliates under the “Legally Distinct Standard,” which allowed listed parties to circumvent restrictions through complex ownership structures. The new rule aggregates ownership stakes across multiple listed entities and includes indirect ownership, thereby significantly expanding the regulatory net. However, it excludes certain entities, such as those on the Unverified List or Denied Persons List, and U.S. entities, and has exceptions for addresses related to some Entity List entries.
The implementation of the BIS 50% rule presents wide-ranging compliance challenges globally across various industries, particularly impacting Chinese semiconductor companies. Exporters must enhance due diligence procedures, modify compliance policies, update contractual clauses, and integrate more sophisticated ownership screening capabilities. The rule also necessitates increased investment in export control compliance, especially among small and medium enterprises and financial institutions less accustomed to export control measures than economic sanctions. Companies are urged to conduct risk assessments and prepare contingency plans in anticipation of the rule’s potential reinstatement after the suspension period ends in November 2026.
中央发话!解决好拖欠企业账款
Central Government Directive! Effectively Resolve Delayed Payments to Enterprises
China Daily | Local Language | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | Regulation
On December 8, 2025, the Politburo emphasized the urgent need to resolve overdue payments to enterprises and migrant workers, highlighting the seriousness of delayed payments on the national agenda. This issue has been repeatedly addressed throughout 2025, with previous directives aimed specifically at local governments and private enterprises, urging governments and state-owned enterprises, especially central state-owned ones, to lead in addressing these outstanding payments.
The central government views delayed payments as a significant threat to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), where cash flow disruptions can jeopardize production, wage payments, and overall business survival, ultimately affecting the livelihoods of many families and the economic foundation. Recognizing this, policy measures have been systematically introduced since 2024, including the issuance of clear Opinions on the matter and an approved Action Plan to accelerate clearance of outstanding debts in early 2025.
Regulatory improvements came into effect on June 1, 2025, with revised rules requiring government bodies, public institutions, and large enterprises to pay SMEs within 60 days of delivery, and prohibiting conditional payments based on third-party schedules. These measures aim to establish long-term mechanisms to prevent recurring cycles of debt accumulation and ensure smoother payment flows.
Judicial data from the Supreme People's Court indicate progress in clearing debts owed by government and public institutions to SMEs, with over 9,166 cases settled and more than 31.142 billion yuan recovered from January to September 2025. The central government emphasizes the broader economic implications of unpaid debts, including threats to government credibility and the business environment, urging timely implementation of policies to support enterprise survival and sustain economic stability.
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