China

特稿｜2026，世界经济五问

Xinhua | Local Language | News | Jan. 5, 2026 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Entering 2026, the global economy faces a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical conflicts, protectionism, diverging macroeconomic policies, and technological disruptions. Major institutions like the IMF and OECD predict a slowdown in world economic growth due to uncertainties, protectionist barriers, labor imbalances, fiscal vulnerabilities, and financial market risks. However, some analysts foresee potential stability and growth acceleration driven by AI investment and supportive fiscal policies, though growth will remain uneven across regions. The U.S. economy shows signs of instability, while Asia, propelled by green transition investments and technology, is expected to maintain faster growth. Regional integration and South-South trade are anticipated to strengthen global economic dynamics.

Global trade faces headwinds as U.S. tariff policies and protectionism contribute to rising trade frictions and investment uncertainties. The WTO downgraded its global merchandise trade growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, citing the spread of trade restrictions and policy uncertainties. Companies are reevaluating supply chains with a shift toward regionalization and reshoring to enhance security over efficiency, making supply chains shorter and more localized in response to geopolitical risks.

Artificial intelligence investment is projected to surpass $2 trillion in 2026, profoundly impacting the global economy. While AI fosters productivity gains and new business models, it may also exacerbate income inequality and employment structure changes, leading to a “K-shaped” economic divergence in the short term. Long-term expectations suggest AI will broadly enhance labor productivity, drive industrial upgrading, and create new industries and jobs.

Monetary policies among major developed economies will diverge further in 2026. The U.S. Federal Reserve may ease credit, the European Central Bank is nearing the end of rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan may continue raising rates. These divergences, coupled with high public debt and rising bond yields in many developed countries, increase market uncertainty and risks of financial instability. The prominence of the U.S. dollar as the main reserve currency is increasingly questioned, with some economies accelerating efforts toward “de-dollarization.”

China’s economy is expected to demonstrate resilience in 2026, supported by strong institutional frameworks, a large market, a complete industrial system, and innovation. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes building a strong domestic market, boosting investment in AI and technology, and advancing inward-demand-driven growth. China’s deep integration in global supply chains and ongoing reforms position it as a key driver of global trade and economic growth. International organizations have raised China’s growth forecasts, anticipating it to contribute around 30% to global growth, while it shifts toward more balanced, innovation- and green-focused development.

Times of News | English | News | Jan. 5, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

Samsung Electronics reported strong customer praise for its next-generation high-bandwidth memory chip, HBM4, with some customers remarking that "Samsung is back." Co-CEO and chip chief Jun Young-hyun acknowledged the company still needs to enhance competitiveness further. The company is in advanced talks to supply HBM4 chips to Nvidia, a leading U.S. AI firm, as Samsung seeks to catch up with rivals such as SK Hynix in the AI chip market.

SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung noted that demand for AI chips has accelerated faster than anticipated, creating favorable conditions but also intensifying competition. For 2026, he predicted a tougher business environment requiring bold investment and preparation. Market data from the third quarter of 2025 showed SK Hynix leading the HBM market with a 53% share, followed by Samsung at 35% and Micron at 11%.

Samsung’s share price rose 7.2% on the first trading day of 2026, outperforming the broader KOSPI index, along with SK Hynix, which gained 4%. In the foundry sector, Samsung’s Jun highlighted recent supply deals with major customers, including a $16.5 billion contract with Tesla, positioning the foundry business for significant growth.

Samsung co-CEO TM Roh, overseeing mobile phones, TVs, and appliances, warned of increased risks in 2026 due to rising component costs and global tariff barriers. To maintain competitiveness, the company plans to focus on supply chain diversification and optimizing global operations to mitigate sourcing, pricing, and tariff challenges.

Express Tribune | English | News | Jan. 5, 2026 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Ishaq Dar, arrived in Beijing on January 3, 2026, to co-chair the seventh round of the Pakistan-China Foreign Ministers' Strategic Dialogue with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. This high-level meeting, scheduled for January 4, 2026, is the first top diplomatic visit to China this year and follows the previous dialogue held in August 2025. The forum aims to discuss a broad range of bilateral, regional, and international issues to align positions and strengthen cooperation between the two countries.

The strategic dialogue serves as the highest consultative mechanism between Pakistan and China, covering political, economic, and security cooperation as well as people-to-people exchanges. It provides a platform to review the comprehensive bilateral relationship and coordinate responses to regional developments, including the evolving situations in South Asia, the Middle East, and strategic competition among global powers. Key agenda items likely include enhancing industrial collaboration, agricultural innovation, IT initiatives, green development, and regional stability efforts, especially concerning Afghanistan and broader security challenges.

The meeting coincides with the 75th anniversary of Pakistan-China diplomatic relations, marked by joint commemorative events celebrating decades of strong political trust, defense cooperation, and economic engagement. Since establishing ties in 1951, both countries have maintained an "All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership," frequently described as that of "iron brothers." The economic cooperation pillar, notably the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), continues to be a focus despite global economic challenges.

This dialogue underscores the accelerated pace of high-level interactions between Islamabad and Beijing, reflecting mutual commitment to regional peace, stability, and sustainable development. Practical outcomes anticipated include agreements on trade facilitation, energy cooperation, joint infrastructure projects, and coordinated diplomatic strategies. The engagement reaffirms the long-standing partnership and sets a trajectory for expanded economic collaboration, strategic alignment, and enhanced bilateral ties moving forward.