China

MERICS | English | AcademicThink | Nov. 28, 2025 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

In 2026, China is expected to make significant advancements in science and technology, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biotechnology, and green technologies, despite ongoing US restrictions on high-tech exports. Nearly 80 percent of the surveyed experts anticipate "major" progress in AI, reflecting strong confidence in China’s innovation capabilities.

Relations between China and the United States are projected to continue deteriorating, especially in technology, military, and trade sectors. Around 75 percent of respondents foresee worsening tech relations, with 68 percent anticipating military tensions and 62 percent expecting trade conflicts. This decline in US-China ties may also strain transatlantic relations, as most experts expressed skepticism about the US and EU aligning their China policies or Europe successfully reducing economic dependencies on China.

Pessimism is prevalent concerning Europe’s ability to counter China’s geopolitical and economic influence, particularly in the Global South and regarding China’s support for Russia. However, some optimism exists for cooperation between China and Europe in climate policy and public health. China is expected to deepen its partnerships in the Global South and diversify its export markets, while strengthening relations with European countries is considered less critical for Beijing.

China’s stance on Taiwan is predicted to remain stable, with no significant escalation expected. Views on China’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are mixed; about half foresee continued support for Moscow, one-third anticipate increased dual-use exports, and opinions vary on China’s involvement in peace efforts and post-war reconstruction.

Socio-economic challenges in China, such as youth unemployment, welfare provision, and declining birth rates, are expected to remain stable or show only modest improvements, with no major disruptions anticipated. Over half of respondents believe global perceptions of China will improve in 2026.

The MERICS China Forecast 2026 survey involved 766 respondents worldwide, primarily Europeans, and captured insights from academia, the private sector, think tanks, and government institutions. Results were presented on November 26, 2025.

China-US Focus | English | AcademicThink | Nov. 28, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

In November 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi broke diplomatic norms by declaring that a military crisis over Taiwan would be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially triggering direct Japanese military involvement. This statement provoked a swift and multifaceted backlash from China, including travel advisories, economic retaliation through mass cancellation of trips to Japan, intensified Chinese coastguard patrols near disputed islands, and revived historical grievances in Chinese media. The move isolated Japan regionally, with no public support from the United States, delayed joint exercises from South Korea, and unease voiced in Taiwan over Japan’s security stance.

Japan’s announcement highlighted a widening disconnect between its Cold War-era security mindset and the complex realities of a transforming Asia. Japan’s security depends heavily on Chinese cooperation due to North Korean threats and its integrated economic ties with China. Antagonizing Beijing complicates crisis management on the Korean Peninsula and threatens vital trade, financial stability, and resource supply chains. The resurgence of militarist sentiments under the current prime minister alienates regional neighbors still sensitive to Japan’s imperial history.

Amid the decline of American influence in Asia, regional actors including the Philippines are hesitant to align too closely with the US-led security framework, wary of provoking China without guaranteed backing. China’s punitive measures against Japan serve as a warning to other countries about the cost of supporting Taiwan contingencies. The crisis has reinforced China's strategic message that Taiwan is a non-negotiable internal matter and that outside interference will provoke consequences.

The article concludes that Japan must avoid further provocative rhetoric, focus on restoring relations with China, and recognize that Asia’s stability depends on regional cooperation with China playing a central role. Japan’s future security and prosperity hinge on integration and pragmatic engagement with neighbors rather than on outdated or militarized posturing over Taiwan. China, having asserted its red lines, should maintain openness to gradual de-escalation if Japan resumes diplomatic ambiguity, fostering a more stable regional environment.

科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化

Guangming Daily | Local Language | News | Nov. 28, 2025 | UndeterminedDemographics

The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party emphasized advancing people-centered new-type urbanization by scientifically and orderly promoting the citizenization of the agricultural migrant population. This process involves transferring rural labor to urban areas while ensuring access to basic public services based on permanent residence. Since the reform and opening-up, China has experienced rapid urbanization with hundreds of millions of agricultural migrants contributing to urban development. The current strategy aims to improve employment quality and living standards of these migrants, aligning with the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on quality and scientific urbanization.

By the end of 2024, nearly 300 million migrant workers were reported in China, indicating a steady increase. Promoting their citizenization helps expand the domestic consumer market, unleashes demand potential, creates investment and employment opportunities, and drives urban infrastructure and public service development. Equal access to urban public services can mobilize the migrants' enthusiasm and creativity and ensure shared modernization progress.

Despite achievements in public service coverage, employment quality, and housing for migrant workers, challenges remain, including disparities between household registration urbanization and actual resident urbanization, limited access to affordable housing, and unresolved issues around children's education. With urbanization transitioning from rapid expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, efforts should focus on employment and skills training targeting new-generation migrant workers; ensuring educational rights for accompanying children through resource optimization and enrollment reforms; implementing comprehensive housing保障 measures including affordable rental housing; and safeguarding social insurance rights by removing registration restrictions and enhancing coverage and inclusiveness of social insurance systems for migrants and flexible workers.