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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Japan’s attempts of remilitarization reignite doubts about its future direction, lead to new reckoning of its historical crimes: FM spokesperson
Global Times | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun criticized Japan's recent military expansion and efforts to amend its pacifist constitution, arguing that these moves fuel doubts about Japan's future and prompt renewed scrutiny of its historical war crimes. Guo highlighted Japan's shifts in security policy, including lifting bans on collective self-defense, easing weapons export restrictions, and pursuing counterattack capabilities, along with discussions about acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. These actions, coupled with a 13-year consecutive increase in defense spending, have heightened regional and international concern.
Guo also pointed to Japan's insufficient reflection on its World War II aggression, noting that many war criminals remained active in politics and the military post-war. He criticized visits by former Japanese officials to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Class-A war criminals, and efforts to revise history textbooks to downplay aggression. Guo claimed that Japanese militarism has never been fully eradicated and that right-wing factions focus on Japan's defeat rather than its responsibility for war.
Emphasizing Japan’s obligations under the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation and its Instrument of Surrender, Guo called for political and legal measures to restrict Japan's military capabilities and erase militaristic ideology. He urged the international community to remain vigilant against any attempts to revive Japanese militarism and to protect the post-World War II peace and security framework established by these agreements.
Study identifies sharp swings in daily temperatures as new climate threat
Xinhua | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | Climate Change
A new study published in Nature Climate Change by scientists from Nanjing University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences has found that abrupt and significant daily temperature fluctuations are increasing in frequency and severity due to climate change. These sharp temperature swings are becoming more extreme across low to mid-latitude regions, driven primarily by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions, as confirmed through optimal fingerprinting techniques.
Climate projections indicate that under a high-emissions scenario, the frequency of these sudden temperature changes could rise by approximately 17 percent and their intensity by 20 percent by 2100, impacting regions that house over 80 percent of the global population. The physical cause involves global warming worsening soil drought, increasing variability in sea-level pressure and soil moisture, which reduces land thermal capacity and intensifies fluctuations in cloud cover and solar radiation.
The study also highlights significant health risks linked to these abrupt temperature variations, including increased mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, based on data from Jiangsu Province in China and the United States. The researchers call for global scientific recognition of extreme day-to-day temperature variability as a distinct type of extreme weather event, given its implications for public health and ecosystem stability.
IMF: China's resilience will be sustained
China News | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth
China's economy is expected to maintain resilient growth in 2026 and beyond, supported by pro-growth macroeconomic policies and a strategic shift toward a consumption-driven growth model. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 5 percent in 2025 and 4.5 percent in 2026, citing strong exports and fiscal stimulus as key factors. The Asian Development Bank also revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 4.8 percent, reflecting stronger-than-expected GDP growth and new policy supports.
To sustain medium-term growth, experts emphasize the need for aggressive measures to boost household spending, including more expansionary macroeconomic policies and targeted housing assistance for young people. Boosting domestic consumption is highlighted as the overarching policy priority that will help reduce internal and external imbalances while providing a more stable growth source. Consumer inflation increased to 0.7 percent year-on-year in November 2025, driven by higher prices in home appliances, clothing, and services, signaling the impact of policies aimed at stimulating demand.
The property sector slowdown remains a significant drag on consumer confidence. The IMF recommends decisive actions to resolve this issue, such as allowing unviable developers to exit the market and completing unfinished housing projects. The Chinese government’s emphasis on strengthening domestic demand was reiterated during a recent Political Bureau meeting, with projections indicating final consumption expenditure could exceed 90 trillion yuan ($12.7 trillion) during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, accounting for about 60 percent of GDP.
Increased fiscal support for consumption is expected in 2026, including continuation of the national consumer-goods trade-in program and improved housing subsidies for young people. Additional initiatives may involve extending public holidays and paid leave. Financial institutions forecast China’s deficit-to-GDP ratio will stay around 4 percent to enable proactive fiscal policies. Suggestions to tailor subsidies based on product price and technology level were also proposed to further stimulate consumption growth.
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