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China
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
China Ends PV Export Rebates, Triggering Global Industry Realignment
Jan. 19, 2026 | CompetitivenessChina’s recent fiscal policy change is set to reshape global photovoltaic manufacturing and trade.
**In early 2026, China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration announced the complete cancellation of the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026.**
This move concludes a series of rebate reductions that began in 2013 and covers 249 items across the PV industry chain, from wafers to modules. The rebate had served as a major subsidy for Chinese PV exporters, lowering their export prices and bolstering their competitiveness on world markets.
**Following the announcement, Chinese PV module prices climbed unexpectedly during the traditional off-season as overseas buyers rushed to lock in orders before the rebate expired.**
Export orders and production volumes surged in the first quarter of 2026, delivering short-term revenue gains for manufacturers but raising alarms about an overdrawn demand cycle in the second quarter. Industry analysts caution that this front-loaded rush could trigger sharp price corrections and heightened volatility once the initial backlog clears.
**Estimates suggest that leading PV producers may forgo between 1 and 2 billion yuan in annual rebate income, translating to a profit decline of roughly 46 to 51 yuan per 210R module exported.**
Analysts project that this profitability squeeze could shrink China’s module exports by 5 to 10 percent. Smaller and mid-sized enterprises—lacking the scale and technological advantages of their larger peers—face the greatest pressure to absorb these additional tax costs.
**In response, top Chinese PV firms such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar and Canadian Solar have accelerated their overseas expansion and localization strategies.**
They are establishing or expanding production facilities in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and the United States to produce modules closer to end markets. This regional footprint helps them circumvent trade barriers, cut logistics and tariff expenses and bolster supply-chain resilience. Parallel investments in overseas sales subsidiaries further reinforce their local market penetration.
**With rebate support waning, technology innovation has become the centerpiece of competitive strategy.**
High-efficiency solutions—particularly bifacial cell (BC) and TOPCon 3.0 modules—stand poised to capture growing market share and command premium export prices. This shift moves the industry away from price-driven competition toward technology differentiation, brand building and higher-margin products, while compelling smaller players to invest in upgrades or exit the market.
**The government’s adjustment aims to curb chronic low-price competition and reduce international trade disputes tied to alleged subsidy abuses by reallocating fiscal resources from export rebates to domestic research and development, industrial upgrades and social applications.**
Over the medium to long term, this policy should help stabilize corporate profit margins, ease subsidy-related trade tensions and accelerate industry consolidation—positioning China’s leading PV firms with established overseas capacity for enhanced global competitiveness.
China Surpasses 10 Trillion Kilowatt-Hours in Annual Electricity Consumption Amid Industrial and Technological Growth
Jan. 19, 2026 | Energy & Natural ResourcesChina’s annual electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, reflecting significant shifts in its economic and energy landscape.
**In 2025, China’s total electricity use reached 10.4 trillion kilowatt-hours, a 5.0 percent increase from the previous year, making it the first country to surpass the 10 trillion kWh annual mark.**
This consumption level is more than twice that of the United States and exceeds the combined total of the European Union, Russia, India and Japan, underscoring China’s role as the world’s largest electricity consumer and the resilience of its economy.
**Over the past decade, China doubled its annual electricity use from about 5.9 trillion kWh in 2016 to over 10 trillion kWh in 2025, with most years seeing growth above 5 percent.**
Sustained peak loads reached up to twenty times higher than in earlier years, supported by policies promoting green energy, technological innovation, a unified national electricity market and expanded international cooperation.
**Steady macroeconomic improvement and persistent high summer temperatures drove residential demand, with monthly consumption topping one trillion kWh for two consecutive months for the first time.**
This surge coincided with rapid industrial expansion and coordinated efforts to strengthen energy assurance across regions.
**Electricity use in high-end manufacturing rose sharply: new energy vehicle production drove demand up by more than 20 percent, and wind power equipment manufacturing increased over 30 percent.**
The digital economy drove a more than 30 percent rise in internet services consumption. The electric vehicle charging and battery-swap sector recorded a 48.8 percent increase in power use, supported by the installation of 19.322 million charging units—a 52.0 percent year-on-year rise—reflecting the shift toward high-tech, value-added industries.
**China coordinated its power supply system to balance generation, grid management and demand response.**
Coal provided baseload power, while hydropower, nuclear and thermal sources supplemented by renewables paired with advanced energy storage smoothed output fluctuations. Grid maintenance, interregional transmission, time-of-use pricing and peak-valley tariffs enhanced system reliability and promoted efficient demand management.
**Growth in energy-intensive industries slowed or declined, with ferrous metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products recording reductions.**
Structural industrial adjustments, energy-saving retrofits and technological advances lowered energy consumption per unit of GDP, aligning consumption patterns with greener growth objectives.
**The surge in electricity consumption across manufacturing, new energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and related high-tech sectors underscores active production dynamics, strong industrial resilience and continued expansion of China’s industrial scale and technological capacity, contributing to sustained economic growth and progress in the country’s energy transition.**
Monitored Intelligence for China - Jan. 19, 2026
News
Media
194
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City/State
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7
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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
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8
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3
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1
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Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Operations Categories Reported on Today
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Items Reported On
Legal Exposure
1
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3
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1
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1
Operating Results
2
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3
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6
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6
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3
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2
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1
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1
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工信部：科技型中小企业纳入梯度培育范围
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Technology-Based SMEs Included in the Scope of Tiered Cultivation
STCN | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released updated "Administrative Measures for the Tiered Cultivation of High-Quality Small and Medium-sized Enterprises," effective April 1, 2026. These Measures aim to improve the tiered cultivation system for high-quality SMEs by expanding the scope to include technology-based SMEs alongside innovation-oriented SMEs, collectively termed technology-based and innovation-oriented SMEs. The Measures also emphasize proactive discovery mechanisms, data sharing to reduce enterprise burden, and standardized platform applications.
Key revisions include raising recognition standards such as higher thresholds for operating income, R&D investment, and intellectual property requirements, as well as introducing a quality evaluation score to focus on development quality. The Measures also remove provincial self-set indicators in favor of a unified national standard and incorporate international market share for outward-oriented enterprises.
Process management enhancements involve implementing the "double-random" review mechanism, strengthening quality control by limiting low-score recommendations, preventing conflicts of interest by banning fee-charging intermediary agencies, and increasing inclusiveness by allowing some enterprises to reapply after rectification and credit restoration. Local departments are guided to better coordinate fiscal, financial, and talent support policies and streamline policy delivery to enterprises.
Enterprises undergoing review before the Measures’ implementation may continue under previous standards. The Ministry will issue new requirements and standards for technology-based and innovation-oriented SMEs but will maintain the original standards provisionally until those new documents are finalized.
年内首现IPO暂缓审议，券商背景高管在列，暂缓所为何因？
First IPO Review Suspension of the Year, Including Executives with Brokerage Backgrounds; What Are the Reasons for the Suspension?
Sina Finance | Local Language | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Regulatory Enforcement Actions
In early 2026, the Beijing Stock Exchange deferred the IPO review of Xinsheng Technology, marking the first IPO suspension of the year. The suspension was driven by regulatory concerns over the authenticity of the company’s sales revenue, particularly involving third-party payments with cross-border foreign exchange capabilities, and the need for the company to disclose more details about fundraising investment projects undertaken through subsidiaries and the measures to ensure proper use of raised funds to protect minority investors.
Xinsheng Technology, sponsored by Guosen Securities, had adjusted its fundraising target from 489 million yuan to 449 million yuan, primarily investing in an embroidery machine production line. Several senior executives hold backgrounds in major securities firms. The deferral reflects a broader regulatory trend in 2026 of speeding up IPO reviews while maintaining strict scrutiny, as 2025 also saw a lower IPO approval rate than 2024.
The company specializes in computerized embroidery machines with a significant portion of revenue generated overseas, especially in India and Pakistan, leading to questions about the sustainability of its performance amid potential trade and foreign exchange risks. Xinsheng Technology reported steady revenue growth from 2022 through mid-2025, but regulators requested detailed explanations on sales revenue authenticity and future demand sustainability.
Additional regulatory concerns focused on the company’s decision to have certain fundraising-investment projects implemented by its subsidiaries Xinsheng Machinery and Xinshun Precision. Regulators questioned the rationality and necessity of these arrangements, given the asset situations of the subsidiaries. Xinsheng Technology explained that the subsidiaries own the main production equipment for these projects and that the division of labor within the group justified their role in project implementation.
California AG sends cease and desist letter to xAI on deepfake images
Times of News | English | News | Jan. 19, 2026 | Privacy
California Attorney General Rob Bonta sent a cease and desist letter to Elon Musk’s company xAI on January 16, 2026, demanding an immediate halt to the generation and distribution of non-consensual sexual images produced by its generative AI chatbot, Grok. Bonta emphasized the expectation that xAI comply without delay.
The action follows a global backlash against Grok, which has allowed users to create and publish sexualized images of women and minors. This has led to investigations and regulatory responses in multiple countries. Authorities in Japan, Canada, and Britain have opened probes into Grok, while Malaysia and Indonesia have temporarily blocked access to the tool due to concerns over explicit image creation.
In response to the backlash and investigations, xAI announced restrictions on image-editing features for all Grok users in late January 2026. As of the date of the letter, xAI had not commented publicly on the cease and desist notice.
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