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Japan
Intelligence for Better Decision Making
By-elections House of Representatives in Japan
April 30, 2024 | Indirect Indicator- All candidates from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan have won in the three House of Representatives by-elections, including the Shimane 1st District.
- The victory may cause unrest within the ruling party and raise questions about the responsibility of the executive branch, potentially leading to a call for Prime Minister Kishida's replacement.
- The LDP lost a seat in a single-seat constituency in Shimane Prefecture for the first time since 1996.
- The low voter turnout of 54.62% is a record and brings into question why the stronghold of the conservative kingdom collapsed.
- The LDP's loss is believed to be due to its handling of political and monetary issues.
- The CDP's victory in the by-elections comes as a significant boost for party leader Izumi Kenta, especially amidst the LDP's secret funds scandal.
- The CDP intends to nominate more than 200 candidates in the upcoming party convention, which shows the party's determination to make a significant impact in the upcoming elections.
- While the LDP is grappling with a scandal and is resistant to discussing political reform, the CDP has shown a more assertive stance by participating in all three by-elections.
- Other opposition parties show support and cooperation for the CDP, indicating unity among opposition parties to increase the number of opposition-held seats.
- Challenges remain within the opposition coalition as they prepare for upcoming elections, despite the recent victory by the CDP.
Suspected Yen Market Intervention
April 30, 2024 | Indirect Indicator- Following a rally of the yen to 160-per-dollar, there's a suspicion of intervention by Japanese authorities as the dollar dropped back to around 155-yen.
- The yen also weakened against the Euro, marking its lowest point since the Euro was introduced in 1999.
- The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its current monetary policy during its meeting has been met with increased selling pressure on the yen.
- BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the yen's depreciation hasn't substantially impacted prices yet.
- There's widespread anticipation for the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, and investors are looking for guidance on potential shifts in global currency dynamics.
- The yen's volatile movements and fall to a 34-year low against the dollar has led to speculations of intervention by the Japanese authorities or the central bank.
- Despite the sell-off incentives for investors, the yen's surge has led market players to suspect external intervention.
Monitored Intelligence for Japan - Jan. 25, 2024
News
Media
502
Government
Releases
96
City/State
Releases
120
Embassy
Releases
2
Foreign
Service
Advisories
0
Service
Advisories
0
Academic/
Think
Tank
24
Think
Tank
24
Podcasts
0
Videos
0
Social
Media
0
Business
Releases
4
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Risk Categories Reported on Today
Risk Category
Items Reported On
Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
22
Natural Disasters
23
Corporate Corruption or Fraud
1
Terrorism
1
Supply Chain Issues
16
Epidemics and Pandemics
5
Political Scandal or Corruption
7
Critical Infrastructure Failure
2
Accidents
9
Cyber Attacks and Data Loss
3
Extreme Weather Events
7
Regulation
1
Communal and Religious Strife
2
Crime
5
Shifting Geopolitical Alliances
1
Climate Change
2
Product Recalls
1
North Korea
1
Pollution
1
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Operations Categories Reported on Today
Operations Category
Items Reported On
Trade Issues and Numbers
6
Demographics
3
Political Policy Resistance
3
Politics and Elections
11
Asset Price Change
16
Legal Exposure
1
Wages and Compensation
6
Bizdev-Partnering
6
Real Estate
3
Inflation
1
Privacy
1
Mergers & Acquisitions
2
Taxes
1
Tech Development/Adoption
1
Budgets-Budgeting
1
Japan's main opposition CDP wins 3 by-elections
NHK | English | News | April 30, 2024 | Politics and Elections
Japan's main opposition CDP won all three Lower House by-elections in constituencies in Tokyo, Shimane, and Nagasaki. The results are expected to impact the management of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's government. The LDP did not field candidates in two of the districts, one of which saw a candidate resign over vote-buying allegations. Party officials from both the CDP and LDP have commented on the results, with the CDP seeing it as a test of political reform and the LDP vowing to work for regaining public trust after a fundraising scandal.
Kishida’s bumpy road to win a new term in LDP just got rockier
Asahi Shimbun - E | English | News | April 30, 2024 | Politics and Elections
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party faced significant losses in three recent by-elections, leading to concerns about his ability to maintain power and the stability of the party. The defeats were attributed to a political fund scandal within the LDP and raised questions about Kishida's leadership. The opposition parties are expected to take a more confrontational stance on the issue of revising the Political Fund Control Law. Kishida's future as LDP president and the possibility of a general election before the party election are now in doubt.
Top Israel military officer approves war continuation plans for Gaza
NHK | English | News | April 30, 2024 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Israeli military's top officer has approved plans to continue the war in Gaza, potentially including a ground offensive in the southern city of Rafah. Discussions for a pause in fighting and the release of hostages are ongoing between Israel and Hamas, with a new proposal from Israel potentially being discussed by a Hamas delegation in Egypt. Israel also has ongoing efforts to bring humanitarian aid into Gaza, including a project to build an offshore pier for relief supplies. The World Food Programme estimates that 70 percent of northern Gaza residents are facing severe hunger.
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