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AI-Driven Memory Chip Demand Reshapes Global Semiconductor Supply and Spurs Chinese Expansion
Nov. 20, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

Recent shifts in semiconductor investment reflect the impact of AI-driven demand and strategic capacity expansions worldwide.

**AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips led Samsung and SK Hynix to reallocate production capacity from mainstream DRAM toward HBM, creating significant shortages in DRAM for mobile phones, PCs, and servers.**
As these manufacturers ramp up HBM output to support accelerating AI applications, DRAM supply constraints have emerged, pushing memory spot prices sharply higher and contributing to an industry phenomenon known as “chipflation.”

**Rising memory costs are driving up end-product prices across the tech sector.**
PC prices could climb by as much as 15% next year, while smartphone component expenditures are projected to increase by 5–7%. TrendForce analysts warn that these elevated costs may dampen consumer demand, potentially cutting smartphone production by 2% and laptop manufacturing by 2.4% in 2026. According to their estimates, low-margin, low-cost smartphones face the greatest risk.

**Major PC vendors already feel the impact.**
Dell’s memory procurement completion rate may fall to around 40%, raising the risk of delivery delays. In response, Morgan Stanley downgraded Dell’s stock outlook, and both Dell and HP suffered steep share price declines once they disclosed memory shortages and impending price hikes.

**Chinese smartphone manufacturers are encountering acute DRAM shortages and scrambling to secure supplies amid intense competition.**
In contrast, large technology companies such as Apple have largely insulated themselves by relying on long-term memory supply contracts. The scramble among Chinese OEMs has led to reduced orders for local foundries like SMIC.

**Domestic Chinese memory chipmakers are seizing these shortages to expand aggressively.**
Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) has launched government-supported investments to boost its NAND flash capacity, targeting the world’s fourth-largest producer position within two years. This push aligns with Beijing’s strategy of nurturing domestic semiconductor champions. Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, which have signaled only modest capacity increases for DRAM and NAND, Chinese firms are pursuing more ambitious growth plans. As global memory demand continues to rise, these producers may capture additional market share. Samsung’s Xi’an NAND flash facility and SK Hynix’s Wuxi DRAM plant in China already supply substantial portions of their companies’ global output, and ongoing government subsidies and investments in domestic fabs should further strengthen China’s role in the global memory supply chain.
Samsung Accelerates 1c DRAM Production Expansion Amid Rising Global Demand
Nov. 20, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

Korean chip makers are significantly expanding their DRAM production capabilities to address growing market demand.

**Samsung Electronics will ramp up its 10-nanometer-class 6th-generation DRAM (1c DRAM) output from 60,000 wafers per month at the end of 2025 to roughly 200,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.**
The company plans to add 80,000 wafers by mid-2026 and another 60,000 wafers in the final quarter through process conversions in existing lines and fresh investments at its Pyeongtaek Plant 4 (P4).

**This enlarged 1c DRAM capacity will account for about one-third of Samsung’s current total DRAM production, which stands at 650,000–700,000 wafers per month.**
Samsung’s commitment reflects confidence in 1c DRAM technology and aims to alleviate a tight supply not only in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) but in mainstream DRAM—where buyers have begun pre-purchasing unproduced stock to secure future supply.

**Samsung’s 1c DRAM devices will feature circuit linewidths of 11 nanometers or less and incorporate multiple layers of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.**
The goal is to mass-produce next-generation DRAM that delivers both higher performance and lower cost.

**On November 16, Samsung unveiled a broader investment plan of 450 trillion won over five years to secure memory semiconductor capacity as artificial intelligence drives demand higher.**
The company intends to scale production proactively, enabling rapid responses to market shifts.

**This investment push also targets the restoration of Samsung’s position as the world’s top DRAM supplier, a title currently held by SK hynix following Samsung’s recent HBM supply and sales setbacks.**
Samsung representatives say they are reviewing various measures to meet surging demand but have not confirmed the precise allocation of additional funds.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Nov. 21, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Why is Pyongyang likely to shun talks about the inter-Korean frontier?

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | North Korea

South Korea, under the Lee Jae Myung government, recently proposed rare military talks with North Korea focused on clarifying the military demarcation line (MDL) within the demilitarized zone (DMZ). Seoul emphasizes this as a practical measure to prevent unintended military clashes, citing North Korea's increased incursions and infrastructure construction near the border, compounded by the deterioration of physical MDL markers. The proposal aims to reduce tensions by redefining the MDL baseline and suggests beginning with lower-level procedural coordination to avoid politically charged discussions.

Despite the outreach, Pyongyang has not responded and is expected to shun the talks due to ideological and political reasons. North Korea’s “hostile two-state” doctrine, adopted in 2023, reinforces its stance against recognizing special inter-Korean relations or negotiating MDL-related issues with South Korea, which it does not consider a legitimate party to such discussions. Engaging in talks could undermine Kim Jong-un’s political narrative and domestic reputation, as it might implicitly acknowledge the boundary violations North Korea frames as internal construction efforts.

For South Korea, the proposal reflects a growing urgency to reestablish communication amid stalled diplomacy under the Lee administration. The initiative signals a pragmatic approach, sidestepping contentious issues like denuclearization, and suggests a potential shift from waiting for U.S.-North Korea dialogue first to pursuing parallel engagement. South Korea continues daily contact attempts through the inter-Korean liaison line but has yet to receive a response from the North.

반도체 개발 기간 4분의1로 줄인다...설계의 TSMC 노리는 세미파이브

Cut semiconductor development time to a quarter... SemiFive targets TSMC's design sector

Hankyung | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

SemiFive, led by CEO Cho Myung-hyun, is revolutionizing semiconductor development by transforming from a traditional design house into a design platform company that standardizes and automates chip design. This shift aims to reduce development time to one-quarter and lower costs significantly, similar to how TSMC platformized manufacturing. SemiFive automates processes from specification writing to packaging and system software development, addressing increased demand for ASICs driven by the slowdown of Moore's Law and the rise of AI applications.

Founded in 2019, SemiFive initially served as a bridge between fabless semiconductor companies and foundries. It has since built a platform featuring reusable design IP and modular blocks like CPUs and high-speed interfaces that reduce design risk and accelerate time-to-market. Cho highlighted SemiFive's ability to finish projects faster and at half the cost compared to traditional approaches, aiming to cut personnel needs by two-thirds.

SemiFive's business model diverges from typical design houses by managing the entire production process, from foundry orders to testing, and generating revenue through chip sales. The company claims a competitive lead of over five years due to its early start and accumulated intellectual property. It has attracted 240 billion won in investments from prominent global and domestic funds, employs over 400 researchers worldwide, and reported a 56.8% increase in sales last year, with plans to list on the KOSDAQ market within the year.

Cho envisions a future where design platforms enable customers to lead chip specifications while the platform handles design and mass production, establishing a clear division of labor. SemiFive aims to become the TSMC equivalent in semiconductor design.

한투·미래에셋, IMA 인가 취득…초대형 투자銀 탄생

KDB and Mirae Asset Obtain IMA Approval…The Birth of a Mega Investment Bank

ET News | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | UndeterminedMergers & Acquisitions

Korea Investment & Securities and Mirae Asset Securities have received approval to operate the first comprehensive investment accounts (IMAs) under the super-large investment bank system, marking the first such approval in eight years since the system's introduction. These IMAs are expected to launch within the year, offering investment products with anticipated annual returns of 5–8% while guaranteeing the principal. A requirement mandates at least 25% of customer funds in IMAs to be invested in venture capital including small and venture companies and venture funds, which is expected to stimulate the KOSDAQ market.

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) designated Korea Investment & Securities and Mirae Asset Securities as comprehensive investment business operators with capital exceeding 8 trillion won. This marks the first designation of securities firms with such capital since the FSC introduced a tiered capital system in 2017 to encourage scaling in the sector. IMAs function as performance-linked dividend accounts pooled for integrated management, though early termination results in forfeiture of principal. Both firms are preparing to launch products as early as next month, with initial offerings targeting over 6% annual returns and minimum one-year maturities.

Investment through IMAs will be subject to increasing mandates on venture capital allocation, with targets set at 10% in 2026, 20% in 2027, and 25% by 2028. Given IMAs and commercial paper can be issued up to 300% of the firms’ capital, investment capacity could reach about 40 trillion won, with approximately 10 trillion won directed toward equity investments in venture funds, the National Growth Fund, and business development companies.

The FSC plans to bolster the KOSDAQ market's infrastructure role to sustain a virtuous cycle in the venture capital ecosystem, supported by the large capital inflows expected from IMAs. The new comprehensive investment firms intend to enhance their research capabilities focused on KOSDAQ-listed companies to support this initiative. An FSC official emphasized the importance of the KOSDAQ market for ongoing venture capital investment and expressed confidence that the firms will meet the 25% venture capital investment target.

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