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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
We categorize key intelligence into one of 30 different operations intelligence categories.
Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
카카오뱅크, 태국 인뱅 설립위해 합작법인 계약 체결
Kakao Bank signs joint venture agreement to establish inbound bank in Thailand
ZD Net Korea | Local Language | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering
Kakao Bank has signed a joint venture agreement with Thai financial holding company SCBX to establish a virtual bank in Thailand. The virtual bank will operate solely through a digital platform without physical branches. Kakao Bank will initially acquire a 10% stake in the joint venture, with plans to increase its holding to 24.5%, becoming the second-largest shareholder. Kakao Bank will oversee front-end development, including user interface, user experience planning, and mobile app development.
China’s WeBank subsidiary, WeBank Technology Service, will also participate as a technology partner to enhance synergies. Kakao Bank intends to use its entry into the Thai market as a launchpad for further expansion into Southeast Asia and other regions.
This venture marks Kakao Bank’s return to the Thai market for the first time in 25 years since the Asian financial crisis. Previously, Kakao Bank made an international investment in the Indonesian digital bank Superbank, which has attracted 5 million customers. CEO Yoon Ho-young emphasized the goal of building a successful digital finance model based on Korea’s expertise to pioneer global markets.
Firefighters battle wildfire raging in Busan for 2nd day
Korea Herald | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Natural Disasters
A wildfire has been burning on a mountain in Busan for a second day, originating at a tile factory in Gijang county on Wednesday evening. The fire spread to a nearby hill, prompting the evacuation advisory for around 30 people from a local resort. No casualties have been reported so far.
As of early Thursday morning, 65 percent of the 11-hectare fire was under control, with around 340 personnel including firefighters, police, and forestry officials working to contain it. Authorities plan to deploy 17 helicopters, five of which are military, to combat the fire amid strong wind forecasts of up to 15 meters per second.
The Korea Forest Service and local fire authorities have warned of dry conditions in Busan, increasing wildfire risks in the area. Efforts continue to prevent further spread of the blaze amid these challenging weather conditions.
Lee hints at reorienting energy policy on nuclear power, citing public support
Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | UndeterminedPolitical Policy Resistance
President Lee Jae Myung publicly acknowledged “overwhelming public support” for nuclear power during a recent Cabinet meeting, signaling a potential shift from his previous preference for renewable energy policies. While he did not explicitly direct the construction of new nuclear plants, his call for “reasonable discussion free from ideology” and the collection of public feedback suggests a possible tacit approval for expanding nuclear energy.
Previously, Lee had emphasized the rapid supply benefits of renewable energy, citing concerns that nuclear plants take 15 years to build and may not meet immediate energy demands. However, industry pressures, particularly from sectors like AI and semiconductors that require large electricity supplies, appear to have influenced this change. Comments from SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son highlighting energy as a critical bottleneck in Korea’s AI industry were noted as a potential turning point.
Public opinion polls have shown strong support for nuclear power expansion, with a recent Gallup Korea survey indicating 54% of respondents favor building more nuclear plants compared to 25% opposition. This shift in the political landscape, along with an upcoming local election in June, may also be driving the administration's reconsideration of nuclear energy policy.
Energy experts view President Lee’s comments as guidelines for energy policymakers working on the country’s 12th master plan for energy supply. Civic groups suggest that the renewed focus on nuclear power is partly a strategic response to electoral considerations.
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