South Korea

내년 수출 둔화·불황형 흑자 나타날까…경기침체 대비 시급[세쓸통]

Newsis | Local Language | News | Dec. 1, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade projects South Korea’s economic growth for 2026 at 1.9%, with exports expected to decline by 0.5% to $697.1 billion and imports to fall by 0.3%. Despite a possible 1.7% rise in private consumption aided by stabilized prices and interest rates, household debt and perceived price changes remain risk factors. Trade tensions, primarily due to U.S. tariffs and global economic sluggishness, are causing concerns of a recession-type surplus, as imports and exports are both expected to slow, with an anticipated trade surplus of $67.5 billion.

The Korea Development Institute forecasts 1.8% economic growth in 2026, with exports slowing and domestic demand recovering. It projects an annual 1.3% increase in exports and 1.9% rise in imports, though exports may decline slightly in the latter half of the year. The heavy reliance on the U.S. and China, which together account for around 40% of South Korea’s exports, makes the economy vulnerable to ongoing trade tensions, particularly U.S. tariffs and Sino-American disputes, affecting intermediate goods exports and overall trade stability.

Key export sectors such as automobiles, steel, petrochemicals, general machinery, and home appliances face significant challenges from U.S. tariffs, with steel exports anticipated to suffer steep declines and tariff burdens remaining substantial despite recent reductions. Industry experts emphasize the urgent need for structural reform and diversification of Korea’s export markets and products to reduce dependence on the U.S. and China and mitigate external shocks. Expanding trade cooperation with regions including ASEAN, India, the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa is highlighted as crucial for enhancing export competitiveness and securing the country’s economic resilience in the changing global trade environment.

11월27일의 저주…업비트, 두 번째 대형 해킹에 北 배후설까지 '진땀'

Digital Daily | Local Language | News | Dec. 1, 2025 | North Korea

Upbit, a leading South Korean cryptocurrency exchange, experienced a major hacking attack on November 27, 2025, resulting in the theft of approximately 44.5 billion won in virtual assets. This marks Upbit’s second significant breach on the same date, six years after a similar incident in 2019. The attack involved unauthorized withdrawals from Solana-related assets stored in a hot wallet. Following detection, Upbit moved remaining assets to cold wallets and is cooperating with authorities. Suspicion has arisen regarding the involvement of the North Korean Lazarus hacking group, known for targeting cryptocurrency exchanges to generate foreign currency. Financial authorities and the Korea Internet & Security Agency (KISA) have initiated investigations, emphasizing the urgent need to understand the cause of the breach despite Upbit's significant investment in security since the 2019 incident.

In a separate incident, South Korean PC game company Netmarble disclosed a data breach affecting approximately 6.11 million users. Leaked information included names, dates of birth, and encrypted passwords, but excluded highly sensitive data like resident registration numbers. Additional compromised data involved 31 million dormant user IDs, franchise business information from over 66,000 PC bangs, and details of current and former employees. Netmarble apologized, pledged to enhance security measures, and is cooperating with investigations. The security community recognizes the risk of secondary misuse of the stolen data and calls for stronger preventive actions.

Meanwhile, the Russia-linked ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) group Qilin has escalated attacks on South Korean financial firms, making Korea the second most affected country globally by ransomware this year. Qilin compromised a major managed service provider (MSP), leading to infections across approximately 30 asset management companies. Dubbed the "Korean Leak," over 2 terabytes of stolen data have been published on the dark web through multiple campaigns. A possible alliance between Qilin and the North Korean-linked hacking group Moonstone Sleet has been suggested. Global cybersecurity firm Bitdefender warns that the actual scale of damage may be larger than currently known, highlighting the vulnerability of financial institutions as prime targets for such cyberattacks.

치솟은 환율에 韓 '달러 GDP' 올해 뒷걸음질

Hankyung | Local Language | News | Dec. 1, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) converted into U.S. dollars is projected to contract by 0.9% this year, falling from $1.8754 trillion last year to an estimated $1.8586 trillion, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This decrease is primarily due to the won–dollar exchange rate rising sharply, which has outweighed nominal GDP growth in won terms. Over the past two years, dollar GDP has essentially stagnated, increasing only 0.7% from $1.8448 trillion in 2023.

In local currency terms, nominal GDP is expected to grow by 2.1%, driven by real economic growth of 0.9% after adjusting for price factors. The average won-dollar exchange rate from January to November 2025 was 1,418 won per dollar, up 4% from 1,364 won the previous year. With the exchange rate nearing 1,500 won, the annual average might rise further by the year-end, exerting downward pressure on dollar GDP figures.

The exchange rate is becoming a critical factor for South Korea's economic metrics and targets, potentially delaying milestones such as reaching $2 trillion in GDP and attaining a per-capita GDP of $40,000, which were expected within the next few years. The won's depreciation is influenced by interest-rate differences with the U.S., excess market liquidity, and the weakening Japanese yen. On the supply side, foreign investments by Korean individual investors ("Seohak ants"), the National Pension Service's overseas investments, and exporters delaying dollar conversions are contributing to the higher exchange rate, which appears to be beyond the control of policy authorities.