South Korea

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Rising Household Debt Alters Borrowing Patterns and Slows Private Consumption in South Korea
Dec. 1, 2025 | Households

South Korea’s rapid household debt growth is reshaping lending patterns, elevating borrowing costs and dampening private consumption.

**Year-end volume limits at the country’s five major commercial banks have effectively capped mortgage lending.**
In November, outstanding household loans rose by 1.53 trillion won—slower than October and barely above September’s gain. Mortgage balances, at roughly 611 trillion won, recorded their smallest monthly increase in one year and eight months, prompting some banks to suspend new mortgage application counters.

**By contrast, unsecured household lending surged by 1.14 trillion won in November, marking the largest monthly increase in over four years.**
Personal overdraft balances alone expanded by 917.1 billion won—more than four times the growth of other unsecured loans—as borrowers tap credit lines to offset restricted mortgage access and to fund equity and other asset investments.

**Household lending rates have climbed alongside rising bank bond yields.**
Major banks now offer mixed-rate mortgages with upper bounds above 6%, a level unseen in nearly two years, while lower bounds have returned to the mid-4% range after about a year. Credit loan rates for prime borrowers have also risen in line with one-year bond yields, pushing up overall borrowing costs.

**A Bank of Korea report released on November 30, 2024, shows the household debt-to-GDP ratio jumped 13.8 percentage points from 2014 to 2024, the third-largest increase among 77 IMF-surveyed countries after China and Hong Kong.**
BIS data indicate the debt service ratio climbed 1.6 percentage points from Q1 2014 to Q1 2025—the second-highest global rise after Norway—reflecting substantially higher principal and interest burdens on households.

**Despite this debt surge, private consumption’s share of GDP fell by 1.3 percentage points over the past decade, a divergence from peer countries with similar debt trajectories.**
The BOK estimates that excessive household credit growth since 2013 has reduced annual private consumption growth by about 0.40 to 0.44 percentage points. If household debt had remained at 2012 levels, private consumption in 2024 would be 4.9–5.4% higher, boosting its GDP share from 48.5% to roughly 50.9%.

**South Korean consumers exhibit a notably weak wealth effect from real estate: a 1% rise in property prices spurs only a 0.02% increase in consumption, compared with 0.03–0.23% in other advanced economies.**
Contributing factors include the absence of housing liquidity products such as reverse mortgages, cultural norms treating home equity as reserved for future housing needs, and rising vacancy rates in non-residential real estate.

**The BOK describes household debt’s impact on consumption as a gradual, chronic contraction—akin to arteriosclerosis—rather than a sudden crisis, although it notes some recent declines in the debt-to-GDP ratio.**
Demographic shifts have also weighed on consumption growth, subtracting 0.8 percentage points over the decade, while debt accumulation shaved off about 0.4 percentage points annually. The report warns that heavy debt service obligations will likely continue to constrain private consumption over the long term.
South Korean Corporate Dollar Holdings Reach Record High Amid Won Depreciation
Dec. 1, 2025 | Financial System

Corporate deposits in US dollars at South Korea’s leading banks have climbed to unprecedented levels as the won weakens and exchange-rate uncertainty rises.

**Five major South Korean banks—Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and NongHyup—saw corporate dollar balances jump by roughly 21 percent in November, rising from $44.325 billion at the end of October to $53.744 billion by November 27, 2025.**
This increase marks the fastest monthly growth in corporate dollar holdings so far this year.

**Banks registered this surge against a backdrop of a sharply weakening won and forecasts that the won-dollar rate could top 1,500 won.**
In past episodes of dollar strength, investors often sold dollars to lock in exchange gains. This time, however, corporations have continued to build their dollar reserves, driven by expanding US investments and mounting exchange-rate uncertainty that leads firms to hold onto dollars in case the greenback’s strength endures.

**Retail investors have mirrored this trend, boosting their dollar deposit holdings for the fourth straight month.**
As of November 27, individual deposits reached $12.253 billion, with one bank reporting more than $3 billion in retail dollar balances—the highest since January 2022. Growing interest in overseas equities and expectations of further dollar gains have sustained this demand for foreign currency deposits among individuals.

Including public institutions, total dollar deposits at the five banks reached $67.01 billion by the end of November, an 18 percent increase from October and the largest monthly rise across all customer segments this year.

**The won’s value fell from about 1,390 won per dollar in early September to over 1,470 won by late November, despite government efforts to support the currency.**
Market observers point to ongoing volatility and no clear signs that the foreign exchange market will stabilize soon.

**To address the won’s rapid decline, the South Korean government and the National Pension Service met on November 24 to discuss measures for exchange-rate stabilization.**
While they did not announce any specific actions, the meeting reflects authorities’ deep concern over persistent currency fluctuations.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Dec. 1, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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"1억 넘게 날렸어요"…서울 아파트 계약 해제율 5년래 최대

Lost Over 100 Million Won… Seoul Apartment Contract Cancellation Rate Highest in 5 Years

Hankyung | Local Language | News | Dec. 1, 2025 | UndeterminedReal Estate

In 2025, the cancellation rate of apartment purchase contracts in Seoul reached its highest level since data began being tracked in 2020. Out of 75,339 apartment sales transactions reported through November, 5,598 contracts were canceled, representing 7.4% of all contracts. The total value of these canceled contracts is approximately 7.66 trillion won, with an average contract price of about 1.37 billion won. If a 10% penalty on cancellations is assumed, losses from cancellation fees would amount to roughly 766 billion won in total, or about 137 million won per canceled contract.

The cancellation rate has risen in correlation with increased market volatility driven by repeated regulatory changes. After averaging 3.8% in 2020 and peaking at 5.9% in 2022 during a period of soaring policy rates and transaction freezes, the rate dropped to around 4.3-4.4% in 2023 and 2024. However, in 2025, a sequence of policy actions including alterations in land transaction permit zones, stricter loan restrictions in June, supply control measures in September, and expanded regulated areas in October have intensified market instability and driven cancellation rates higher.

Monthly cancellation rates surged after March 2025, following the Seoul city government's re-designation of land transaction permit zones, including key districts like Gangnam and Yongsan. Rates climbed from 8.3% in March to a peak of 10.6% in June, coinciding with tightened financing regulations, and remained above 10% in July. October and November saw lower preliminary rates (around 2.5% and 1%), but these numbers are expected to rise as cancellations continue to be reported.

Geographically, Seongdong-gu experienced the highest cancellation rate at 10.2%, followed closely by Yongsan-gu (10.1%) and Jung-gu (9.8%). Other districts with high cancellation rates included Jungnang-gu, Seodaemun-gu, Gangdong-gu, and Gangnam-gu, all ranging from 8.6% to 9.3%. Conversely, Songpa-gu had the lowest cancellation rate at 5.1%, with nearby districts like Gwanak-gu and Gangseo-gu also recording relatively low cancellation rates.

There are concerns that some canceled contracts may be false reports intended to artificially inflate prices amid the volatile market conditions. This practice could exacerbate price fluctuations and complicate market stability.

누리호 4차 발사 성공, 韓 민간 우주개발 시대 활짝 [K-뉴스페이스·上]

Nuriho 4th Launch Success, Korea's Private Space Development Era Opens Wide [K-NewSpace·Part 1]

Newsis | Local Language | News | Dec. 1, 2025 | UndeterminedTech Development/Adoption

The Korean launch vehicle Nuriho successfully completed its fourth flight on November 27, 2025, marking the first time a vehicle manufactured and assembled entirely by the private sector, specifically Hanwha Aerospace, carried out a nominal mission. This launch, conducted at night to meet specific orbital conditions, represents a significant milestone in Korea's transition from government-led to private-sector-led space development. Hanwha’s role expanded not only to vehicle manufacturing but also to participate in launch preparations alongside the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI), which still led launch operations.

The government plans the fifth and sixth Nuriho launches in 2026 and 2027, respectively, as critical tests to verify the stability of private-sector-led launch operations. From the fifth launch onward, Hanwha’s involvement will increase, including expanded personnel presence in key launch control centers, with the expectation that by the sixth launch, Hanwha will handle most operations except for mission director and launch operations director roles. This gradual handover is designed to confirm the feasibility of a privately centered launch system through repeated successful launches.

Concerns remain about a potential gap in launch activity following the sixth launch in 2027, which could disrupt the emerging private-sector ecosystem. The government is working to secure funding for a seventh launch planned for 2028 under the ‘Nuriho Heritage’ project, intended to cover the gap until a next-generation launch vehicle is tested in 2031. However, this project faces delays due to ongoing preliminary feasibility study requirements, raising fears of another launch hiatus. Such interruptions risk weakening industry expertise, supply chains, and operational continuity, as experienced during the 2.5-year gap between the third and fourth launches.

To prevent this, the government intends to incorporate the seventh launch budget into the next fiscal year and aims to maintain annual launches from the eighth launch onward. Experts emphasize that sustaining the private transition requires continuous launch activity to maintain personnel proficiency, industry networks, and operational data. The future role and funding structure for Nuriho beyond the initial program phase remain key to securing Korea’s private space development momentum.

North's Kim vows to bestow new strategic assets, duty on air force in anniversary celebrations

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Dec. 1, 2025 | North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended a ceremony commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Korean People's Army Air Force on November 28, 2025, at Kalma Airport, where he pledged to bestow new strategic military assets and assign a "new important duty" to the air force. However, he did not reveal specific details about the new assets.

Kim emphasized the air force's crucial role in North Korea's nuclear deterrent strategy and its responsibility to counter espionage and military provocations threatening the nation's sovereign airspace. This announcement aligns with North Korea's ongoing efforts to modernize its conventional military and enhance its aerial combat capabilities, following recent developments such as live-fire air-to-air drills and the introduction of an airborne early warning and control aircraft system earlier in 2025.

The event also featured Kim's daughter, Ju-ae, marking her first public appearance since accompanying him to China in September. During the celebrations, Kim observed an air force demonstration flight, attended an art performance, and awarded the Order of Kim Jong Il, the highest national honor, to the air force.

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