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AI-Driven Memory Chip Demand Reshapes Global Semiconductor Supply and Spurs Chinese Expansion
Nov. 20, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

Recent shifts in semiconductor investment reflect the impact of AI-driven demand and strategic capacity expansions worldwide.

**AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips led Samsung and SK Hynix to reallocate production capacity from mainstream DRAM toward HBM, creating significant shortages in DRAM for mobile phones, PCs, and servers.**
As these manufacturers ramp up HBM output to support accelerating AI applications, DRAM supply constraints have emerged, pushing memory spot prices sharply higher and contributing to an industry phenomenon known as “chipflation.”

**Rising memory costs are driving up end-product prices across the tech sector.**
PC prices could climb by as much as 15% next year, while smartphone component expenditures are projected to increase by 5–7%. TrendForce analysts warn that these elevated costs may dampen consumer demand, potentially cutting smartphone production by 2% and laptop manufacturing by 2.4% in 2026. According to their estimates, low-margin, low-cost smartphones face the greatest risk.

**Major PC vendors already feel the impact.**
Dell’s memory procurement completion rate may fall to around 40%, raising the risk of delivery delays. In response, Morgan Stanley downgraded Dell’s stock outlook, and both Dell and HP suffered steep share price declines once they disclosed memory shortages and impending price hikes.

**Chinese smartphone manufacturers are encountering acute DRAM shortages and scrambling to secure supplies amid intense competition.**
In contrast, large technology companies such as Apple have largely insulated themselves by relying on long-term memory supply contracts. The scramble among Chinese OEMs has led to reduced orders for local foundries like SMIC.

**Domestic Chinese memory chipmakers are seizing these shortages to expand aggressively.**
Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) has launched government-supported investments to boost its NAND flash capacity, targeting the world’s fourth-largest producer position within two years. This push aligns with Beijing’s strategy of nurturing domestic semiconductor champions. Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, which have signaled only modest capacity increases for DRAM and NAND, Chinese firms are pursuing more ambitious growth plans. As global memory demand continues to rise, these producers may capture additional market share. Samsung’s Xi’an NAND flash facility and SK Hynix’s Wuxi DRAM plant in China already supply substantial portions of their companies’ global output, and ongoing government subsidies and investments in domestic fabs should further strengthen China’s role in the global memory supply chain.
Samsung Accelerates 1c DRAM Production Expansion Amid Rising Global Demand
Nov. 20, 2025 | Technology & Innovation

Korean chip makers are significantly expanding their DRAM production capabilities to address growing market demand.

**Samsung Electronics will ramp up its 10-nanometer-class 6th-generation DRAM (1c DRAM) output from 60,000 wafers per month at the end of 2025 to roughly 200,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026.**
The company plans to add 80,000 wafers by mid-2026 and another 60,000 wafers in the final quarter through process conversions in existing lines and fresh investments at its Pyeongtaek Plant 4 (P4).

**This enlarged 1c DRAM capacity will account for about one-third of Samsung’s current total DRAM production, which stands at 650,000–700,000 wafers per month.**
Samsung’s commitment reflects confidence in 1c DRAM technology and aims to alleviate a tight supply not only in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) but in mainstream DRAM—where buyers have begun pre-purchasing unproduced stock to secure future supply.

**Samsung’s 1c DRAM devices will feature circuit linewidths of 11 nanometers or less and incorporate multiple layers of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography.**
The goal is to mass-produce next-generation DRAM that delivers both higher performance and lower cost.

**On November 16, Samsung unveiled a broader investment plan of 450 trillion won over five years to secure memory semiconductor capacity as artificial intelligence drives demand higher.**
The company intends to scale production proactively, enabling rapid responses to market shifts.

**This investment push also targets the restoration of Samsung’s position as the world’s top DRAM supplier, a title currently held by SK hynix following Samsung’s recent HBM supply and sales setbacks.**
Samsung representatives say they are reviewing various measures to meet surging demand but have not confirmed the precise allocation of additional funds.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Nov. 21, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Vice FM notes need to resume talks with Japan on sea boundaries under U.N. framework

Yonhap | English | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

South Korea's Second Vice Foreign Minister Kim Jina emphasized the need to resume maritime boundary talks with Japan under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) framework, following the expiration of their bilateral agreement on continental shelf boundaries earlier this year. She highlighted that UNCLOS remains essential for governing South Korea's maritime relations and called for cooperation, mutual understanding, and solutions based on international law in waters where maritime entitlements overlap.

Kim's comments refer to the joint development zone (JDZ) agreement between South Korea and Japan, which expired in June 2025. Originally signed in 1974 to jointly exploit resources in the East China Sea, the agreement became less favorable for South Korea after UNCLOS criteria, effective since 1994, prioritized Japan in determining continental shelf boundaries by distance, placing much of the JDZ within Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Maritime talks between South Korea and Japan were regular until 2010 but ceased amid broader historical disputes. While South Korea maintains similar dialogues with China, recent working-level discussions with Japan, including one in September 2024, have been limited to broad topics without concrete progress on boundary delimitation.

Resumption of flights through North Korean airspace could be earner for regime

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | North Korea

Russia’s largest private airline, S7, has resumed flying through North Korean airspace on its Vladivostok–Shanghai route, marking a significant shift after years of international carriers avoiding this corridor. FlightRadar24 data shows S7 began overflying northeastern North Korea on November 12, 2025, crossing the country’s interior and exiting over the Yellow Sea before reaching Shanghai. This overflight provides North Korea with renewed opportunities to collect foreign currency through overflight fees.

Aviation analyst Edward Condit linked the resumption of flights through North Korean airspace to growing economic ties between Russia and North Korea, as well as operational benefits such as shorter flight distances, fuel savings, and favorable winds. Historical records indicate that Russian airlines like Yakutia Airlines have paid North Korea substantial fees for airspace use, which contributed to foreign currency earnings for the isolated regime before international sanctions intensified.

Despite UN Security Council sanctions not explicitly banning overflights, some experts suggest that paying overflight fees may contravene sanctions. Safety concerns remain a key deterrent for many airlines, given North Korea’s history of unannounced missile tests and the lack of maintenance support for Western-built jets in the country. Other carriers, including Rossiya Airlines on the same route, continue to avoid North Korean airspace, opting for longer routes within Chinese airspace to mitigate these risks.

North Korea originally opened its airspace to international civil aviation in 1994 but closed its borders during the Covid-19 pandemic. Since then, overflights have increased, especially with Russia, where air links have expanded more rapidly compared to other countries. In July 2025, Russian carrier Nordwind restarted its Moscow–Pyongyang service with state subsidies, also upgrading their aircraft from Boeing 777s to Airbus A330s.

FBI 떠나도 북한 해커 추적한 美 요원…"1급 군사비밀만큼 중요"

US agent who tracked North Korean hackers even after leaving FBI says it is as important as top military secrets

Hankyung | Local Language | News | Nov. 21, 2025 | North Korea

Former FBI agent Eric Keo pursued North Korean hackers for four years, focusing on a hacker known as "Hades," affiliated with the North Korean group Andariel under the Reconnaissance General Bureau. Despite leaving the FBI in 2023, Keo continued the investigation due to the serious threat posed by these hackers to hospital security systems, which he viewed as critically important, likening them to "top military secrets."

On May 4, 2021, Hades launched a ransomware attack on a hospital in Kansas, paralyzing its networks and diagnostic equipment, including a sleep lab. The attackers demanded two bitcoins, worth approximately $100,000, threatening to increase the ransom to $200,000 if unpaid within 48 hours. The hospital complied, transferring the bitcoins, which were subsequently withdrawn from ATMs near Dandong, China. Although Rim Jong-hyuk was identified as the group leader and publicly named, Hades remained known only as "Co-conspirator 1."

Keo adopted a covert approach by posing as an operator of a "cryptocurrency casino" to engage with North Korean hackers and gather intelligence. He identified a suspect he believes to be Hades, based on social media usage, phone number links, and the suspect’s own claims of developing ransomware and significant illicit earnings. Experts warn that North Korean hackers often disguise themselves as IT personnel within U.S. companies to gain access for criminal activities beyond simple intrusions.

Keo plans to present the evidence he has collected at a conference in Washington D.C. on November 20, highlighting the ongoing risks posed by North Korean cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure.

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