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Intelligence for Better Decision Making
| Domain | Causal Chain | Possible Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Terms-of-trade index ↑ → Current-account balance (% GDP) ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑ → Real GDP growth ↑) | The enhanced terms of trade and external surpluses will underpin upward revisions to potential output and drive stronger real GDP growth. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Import-price pass-through ↑ → Headline CPI/Core CPI ↑ → Inflation volatility ↑ → Inflation-targeting credibility ↓) | Rising import-price pass-through and inflation volatility may erode confidence in the central bank’s ability to keep inflation near its 2 percent target. |
| Competitiveness | (Semiconductor export boom ↑ → Trade-openness & preferential access ↑ → Real export market-share change ↑ → High-value-added export share ↑ → Total-factor productivity level vs frontier ↑) | Greater preferential access and high-value trade gains will accelerate productivity convergence toward the global frontier. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (DRAM price surge–driven profits ↑ → Capital-formation rate ↑ → Business fixed-investment growth deviation ↑ → Private fixed-investment growth ↑ → Potential GDP growth revision ↑) | Surging profits will finance elevated business investment, prompting analysts to hike potential GDP growth estimates. |
| Macroeconomics & Growth | (Memory chip price surge ↑ → Global-value-chain reconfiguration velocity ↑ → FDI net inflow (% GDP) ↑ → Foreign-owned green-field project count ↑) | Accelerated value-chain shifts will draw substantial FDI and increase foreign-owned greenfield semiconductor projects. |
| Firms | (South Korean PPI inflation ↑ → Supply-chain restructuring cadence ↑ → Supplier-delivery-times index ↓ → End-to-end supply-chain lead-time deviation ↓ → Capacity-utilisation in manufacturing ↑) | Faster supply-chain restructuring and reduced lead-time variability will boost manufacturing capacity utilization. |
| Technology & Innovation | (Strategic-sector export risk ↑ → Dual-use export-control restrictiveness ↑ → Semiconductor fab utilisation rate ↓ → AI inference cost index shift ↑ → AI adoption GDP uplift ↓) | Tighter export controls will reduce fab utilization, raise AI inference costs, and dampen AI-driven GDP gains. |
Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.
The goal is to provide intelligence that allows decision makers to avoid being blindsided by what they may have missed, while informing them to make better decisions as well.
Erudite Risk also includes operations categories so you can monitor the environment for better decision making. Everything is tied together--what happens in risk affects operations and what happens in the market impacts risk profiles.
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Different roles and functions within the organization can monitor different key issue areas. HR may monitor employment, wages, regulations, labor and management relations, etc., while P&L leaders may monitor overall developing trends.
Private actor’s drone incursions into North Korea risk derailing Lee’s tension-easing efforts
Hankyoreh - E | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | North Korea
President Lee Jae Myung has condemned the act of a civilian sending drones into North Korean airspace as an unacceptable security risk that could trigger military clashes between the two Koreas. He emphasized that such drone incursions violate the Armistice Agreement and international law, calling for a thorough investigation and punishment of those involved. Lee warned that individuals engaging in actions resembling acts of war would face consequences, reflecting concerns that the incident could destabilize the fragile armistice.
Investigations suggest the drone flights may not have been the work of a lone civilian. The man involved, Oh, initially claimed he was inspecting pollution from North Korean uranium factories, but evidence points to possible involvement from conservative political groups and the military’s Defense Intelligence Command. Oh’s connections to conservative media and his previous work in the presidential office during the Yoon Suk-yeol administration have fueled speculation of broader ties.
President Lee also criticized the Ministry of National Defense for failing to adequately detect the drone incursions despite radar indications. He called the surveillance failure unacceptable and urged improvements to military facilities and equipment to better prevent future threats. Lee’s strong response reflects his priority of safeguarding inter-Korean relations and preventing incidents that could undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Lee’s denunciation of the drone incident is closely linked to his administration’s push to ease tensions with North Korea. Despite conciliatory gestures, North Korea has yet to respond, and Lee stressed the importance of seeking openings to improve engagement. The drone incursions risk derailing these efforts by provoking security concerns and hardening military stances on both sides.
Cold Wave Peaks Today With -19°C Perceived
Chosun Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Extreme Weather Events
On January 22, the cold wave in South Korea is expected to peak, marking the coldest day of the winter so far, with Seoul experiencing a morning temperature of minus 13 degrees Celsius and a perceived temperature of minus 19 degrees Celsius. The Korea Meteorological Administration attributes this to a cut-off low-pressure system—a mass of Arctic cold air at minus 35 degrees Celsius—moving southward. Morning temperatures are forecasted between minus 19 and minus 5 degrees Celsius, with daytime highs ranging from minus 7 to 2 degrees Celsius. Strong winds will cause perceived temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees lower than actual measurements.
Since January, cold waves with temperatures below minus 10 degrees Celsius have become more frequent in Seoul. On the 21st, the city's lowest temperature reached minus 12.2 degrees Celsius, with a perceived temperature of minus 17.9 degrees Celsius. Seoul has had five days this month with temperatures below minus 10 degrees Celsius, and the forecast predicts at least four more such days by the end of January, totaling nine days—roughly one cold wave every three days. Nationwide impacts include frozen seawater observed at Dadaepo Beach in Busan.
Despite global warming leading to milder winters over the past five years, this January has seen an intensification of cold waves due to frequent cut-off low-pressure systems. The weakening jet stream, influenced by global warming, allows Arctic cold air to escape more often. Unlike typical winters dominated by Siberian high-pressure systems at around minus 15 degrees Celsius, this winter has seen more frequent exposure to colder air masses near minus 35 degrees Celsius. Additionally, an unusual persistent high-pressure system east of Korea since January 20 has sustained cold northwesterly winds, prolonging the cold wave. This high-pressure "wall" is expected to maintain the cold conditions for about six days until the weekend.
Lee slams political-religious collusion as 'path to national ruin' in New Year's press conference
Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Jan. 23, 2026 | Communal and Religious Strife
President Lee Jae Myung condemned the collusion between politics and religion as a "path to national ruin" during his New Year's press conference on January 21, 2026. He highlighted the unacceptable use of religious groups like the Unification Church and Shincheonji Church of Jesus in political election meddling and called for stern punishment of such acts. Lee responded to recent accusations that these organizations influenced political processes, including bribery and mass mobilization to sway primaries and elections. Religious leaders meeting with Lee also urged the disbanding of illegitimate religious organizations.
Lee outlined a national growth strategy centered on five key pillars: regionally-led growth, inclusive growth, safety-based growth, culture-driven growth, and peace-supported growth. He emphasized the need for a "great leap forward through a great transformation" as existing strategies fail to ensure future development. Lee pledged continued efforts to combat irregularities, unfair practices, and to pursue prosecutorial reform geared toward fairness and efficiency, with potential allowances for limited supplementary investigations.
On economic issues, Lee acknowledged concerns over the Korean won's recent weakening but said the government would take measures to stabilize the exchange rate. He expressed confidence that the won’s value would recover within one or two months and positioned this as a relatively stable situation compared to other currencies. On industrial and policy matters, Lee addressed the ongoing political debate about the Yongin semiconductor cluster project, insisting that companies choose locations based on profitability rather than political pressure, and reaffirmed government commitment to the existing plan.
Regarding housing prices and taxation, Lee noted taxes should primarily secure national finances and not be used primarily as regulatory tools, reserving such measures as a last resort. On nuclear power plant construction, he advocated for decisions based on necessity, safety, and public opinion, warning against overturning policies simply due to administrative changes, in the interest of policy stability and sustainability.
The 173-minute press conference, Lee's longest to date, included 25 reporter questions and a mix of serious policy discussion and lighter moments, such as his humorous response to questions about his close relationships with aides.
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