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美元降息有變數？ 臺幣恐再現波動 出口業者警戒
Uncertainty Over US Dollar Interest Rate Cut? Taiwanese Dollar May Fluctuate Again, Exporters on Alert
Yahoo News Taiwan | Local Language | News | Nov. 10, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth
The U.S. Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening in October and cut interest rates by 0.25%. Market attention now focuses on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming departure and how his successor might respond to President Trump’s policies, potentially influencing the U.S. dollar’s trajectory. Taiwanese exporters face dual challenges from U.S. tariffs and currency volatility, prompting them to strengthen risk management, innovate products, and pursue digital transformation to maintain competitiveness.
Ming Chang International, a leading Taiwanese toolbox manufacturer, experienced significant losses due to sharp Taiwan dollar appreciation and tariff-induced order shifts, with losses of about NT$50–60 million in April and May 2025. The company has adapted by negotiating price increases, switching to euro transactions for Europe, and using multiple currencies strategically. Chairman Chang Ting-wei emphasizes that economic cycles and currency fluctuations are natural and unpredictable, but the dollar’s movements reflect the broader U.S. economy.
Gao Ming Precision Machinery, specializing in large gantry machining centers, expects U.S. rate cuts to stimulate equipment investments, though tariff and exchange rate pressures have eroded Taiwanese price advantages against Japanese competitors. The Japanese yen’s depreciation by roughly 30% to 40% this year increased Japanese exports and made Taiwanese companies increasingly shift to Japanese suppliers. Gao Ming is accelerating manufacturing processes and developing AI-based after-sales support to address long delivery times and improve customer service despite the challenging environment.
Taiwan’s dollar has experienced significant volatility in 2025, with the dollar index declining by over 10%. The central bank maintains a cautious stance amid ongoing tariff negotiations and fears of being labeled a currency manipulator due to a possible trade surplus of US$120 billion with the U.S. Experts note that exchange rates, including those of the euro, yen, and Taiwan dollar, currently factor in market expectations through 2026, and much hinges on the Fed’s new chair, expected to be nominated by Trump by December 2025 or early 2026. While some anticipate a weaker dollar under a new Fed chair, long-term dollar strength is generally seen as prevailing despite short-term fluctuations.