Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea

Steptoe & Johnson LLP | English | AcademicThink | Dec. 12, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Since early 2025, US President Trump has aggressively expanded America’s influence in foreign elections, departing from traditional noninterventionist norms. He has publicly supported right-wing candidates aligning with his ideological priorities in countries like Honduras, Argentina, and Poland, often using tools such as aid promises, social media threats, and military rhetoric. These interventions aim more to secure ideological allies than concrete policy deals, reflecting Trump’s personalistic approach to international relations.

In Honduras, Trump endorsed right-wing candidate Nasry “Tito” Asfura and threatened aid cuts if his centrist opponent Salvador Nasralla won, leading to accusations of rigged elections and criticism of US interference. Similar tactics were employed in Argentina, where financial aid helped stabilize the economy prior to midterms that favored Trump ally Javier Milei, and in Poland, where conservative Karol Nawrocki gained White House backing, including visits and public endorsements. However, some interventions produced mixed results, as centrist leaders in countries such as Canada, Australia, Singapore, and Germany pushed back against Trump-aligned candidates.

The 2025 US National Security Strategy codifies this assertive electoral approach, particularly endorsing far-right European parties as a bulwark against perceived decline caused by migration and loss of national identity. Washington’s support for "patriotic European parties" signals a shift toward actively influencing domestic politics within allied countries, raising concerns among transatlantic partners about backing revisionist far-right groups if they fail to align with US interests.

Looking ahead to 2026, the US is expected to continue leveraging its electoral influence in key votes across Europe and Latin America, including elections in Britain, Germany, France, Hungary, Colombia, and Brazil. These contests involve nationalist and right-wing candidates with potential US support, which could increase political instability and erode trust in democratic processes. In particular, interactions around Brazil’s election may intensify amid ongoing disputes involving former President Bolsonaro and trade-related sanctions.

Overall, the Trump administration’s strategy represents a broader recalibration of US global influence, relying more on overt political interference, economic pressures, and military presence rather than traditional diplomatic channels. This approach is likely to increase risks and uncertainty for multinational businesses and international partners, as domestic elections become focal points of US strategic interests and potential sources of geopolitical volatility.