India

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Pahalgam Tourist Attack Spurs Indian Security and Diplomatic Response
April 25, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

The April 22 assault on tourists at Pahalgam’s Baisaran meadow and India’s swift countermeasures reflect the intensifying security challenges in Jammu and Kashmir.

**On April 22, armed assailants opened fire on tourists at Baisaran meadow in Pahalgam, Anantnag district of Jammu and Kashmir, during the peak tourist season.**
They killed at least 26 civilians, including visitors from various Indian states and two foreign nationals, and injured over 20 others. Eyewitnesses said gunmen, some dressed in camouflage and others in black, systematically targeted male tourists after asking their names and religious affiliations. The attack unfolded over 20–30 minutes in the popular meadow, which attracts more than 2,000 visitors daily, and occurred despite the Army camp nearby, raising questions about security readiness.

**Responsibility for the assault fell to The Resistance Front (TRF), a shadow group believed to serve as a front for the banned Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba.**
TRF emerged in Kashmir in 2019 and has conducted targeted killings of individuals viewed as collaborators, but this assault marked a departure from its previous practice of sparing tourists. Analysts believe Lashkar-e-Taiba orchestrated the operation, using TRF to hinder investigations. Security agencies have linked the main handler, Adil Thokar (aka Adil Guri), to Pakistan. Police sketches name two Pakistani nationals and a local guide among the three suspected perpetrators, and officials report a total cadre of six to seven militants participated.

**Security forces launched cordon-and-search operations across South Kashmir immediately after the attack, detaining more than 1,500 individuals for questioning and engaging in an ongoing gunfight in Kulgam district.**
Reinforcements came to Pahalgam as army helicopters and special commandos conducted search-and-destroy missions in the Baisaran forest range. The National Investigation Agency dispatched a team to assist local police, and the Anantnag Police announced a reward of Rs 20 lakh for credible information leading to the terrorists’ capture. Meanwhile, security forces foiled an attempted infiltration along the Line of Control in Baramulla district, neutralizing two intruders.

**The Indian government convened a high-level Cabinet Committee on Security meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and attended by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Home Minister Amit Shah, External Affairs Minister S.**
Jaishankar, and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. They decided to place the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance until Pakistan ends support for cross-border terrorism, close the integrated check post at Attari to all new entries while allowing only pre-approved travel until May 1, and cancel visas under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani nationals with a 48-hour exit deadline. The government also declared all defence, naval, and air advisors at the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi persona non grata, ordered them to leave within a week, and announced reciprocal reductions in Indian personnel in Islamabad.

**The attack triggered a near-total collapse of tourism in the Kashmir Valley.**
Travel agents reported cancellation rates exceeding 80–90 percent for Pahalgam bookings, and tour operators sought refunds as airlines such as Air India, SpiceJet, and IndiGo added extra flights out of Srinagar and waived rescheduling and cancellation fees until April 30. The Union Tourism Ministry urged travel and tour operators, online aggregators, and hoteliers to waive cancellation fees and accommodate affected tourists. Hotel occupancy in Pahalgam fell below 10 percent within 24 hours, and local eateries and transport services largely shut down amid shutdown calls by taxi unions and hoteliers. Local and state authorities announced ex gratia payments of Rs 10 lakh for each deceased and Rs 2 lakh and Rs 1 lakh for seriously and mildly injured persons respectively. Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah called an all-party meeting to forge a united response. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and Home Minister Amit Shah toured the region, met survivors at Anantnag’s Government Medical College, and vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice. Protests and candle marches took place in multiple states, and prominent Muslim organizations including the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind and Jamaat-e-Islami Hind denounced the violence and demanded accountability.
Cloudbursts and Landslides Disrupt Transport and Supply Chains in Ramban, Jammu and Kashmir
April 23, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Heavy rainfall and subsequent cloudbursts in late April devastated Ramban district in Jammu and Kashmir, triggering landslides and flash floods that severely disrupted infrastructure and regional transportation.


On April 21, 2025, three days of constant rain in Ramban district triggered cloudbursts, landslides and flash floods that destroyed roads and cut off transport links across Jammu and Kashmir. The storm battered the Srinagar–Jammu National Highway, the critical corridor linking the Kashmir Valley with the rest of India.

**Authorities have identified 22 sites along the highway where erosion washed away four to five kilometers of pavement, trapping multiple vehicles beneath debris.**
National Highways officials, military engineers, police and local volunteers worked together to clear and relocate more than 140 stranded vehicles, although some tumbled into gorges and remain unreachable. Restoration crews expect to restore full two-way traffic within five days, while allowing one-way travel exclusively for essential services in the meantime.

**The highway closure has snarled supply chains, leaving more than a dozen trucks carrying perishables—particularly poultry and vegetables—stranded on both sides of the blockage.**
One driver reported losing over 500 chickens to exposure and cold. Authorities are closely monitoring food inventories after local market deliveries broke down. Divisional Commissioner V.K. Bidhuri assured residents that the Kashmir Valley holds enough food and petroleum reserves to meet normal consumption for at least 17 days, and warned that panic buying at fuel stations has driven up demand.

**So far, the disaster has claimed three lives, and rescue teams have saved over 100 travelers and residents from floodwaters and roadblocks.**
District administration units have set up temporary shelters and distributed relief supplies to hundreds of displaced passengers. Meanwhile, assessments in about a dozen neighboring villages are underway to determine damage to homes, roads and utilities and to plan compensation and rehabilitation for affected families.

**Chief Minister Omar Abdullah visited the hardest-hit areas of Marog and Kela Morh, traveling by road where possible and trekking past the blocked stretches.**
He offered condolences to the victims’ families, ordered accelerated clearance operations and affirmed the government’s resolve to reopen the highway and aid rehabilitation efforts without designating the event a national disaster. Former Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah has appealed to the central government for additional support.

**With the national highway closed, the Mughal Road now carries light motor traffic one way as an interim alternative into the valley, although landslides continue to hamper the Srinagar–Kargil route.**
The disruption has also driven up air travel demand as residents and tourists seek other ways in and out of the region.

Monitored Intelligence for India - April 25, 2025


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India shuts Attari border after Pahalgam terror attack. How will it impact trade with Pakistan?

Livemint | English | News | April 25, 2025 | Terrorism

India has announced the immediate closure of the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Attari along the India-Pakistan border following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of at least 26 people, primarily tourists. This decision, taken during a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on April 23, includes suspending the Indus treaty until Pakistan ceases its support for cross-border terrorism.

The Attari border, named after the Indian village on the international border with Pakistan, serves as India's only operational land route for trade, playing a crucial role in the exchange of goods between the two nations. The check post, located 28 kilometers from Amritsar, is vital for imports and exports, handling products such as soybean, dry fruits, and gypsum. Although trade volumes have declined since 2018, the corridor recorded significant trade in 2023-24, with over 3,886 crore worth of transactions and numerous cargo and passenger movements.

The closure of the Attari Land Port is expected to have severe economic impacts, particularly on small traders and manufacturers reliant on cross-border trade. Logistical challenges are also anticipated for Afghan imports, many of which utilize this route for access to India. The temporary allowance for valid endorsements to return through this route until May 1, 2025, adds a limited window for passengers.

Shifting Gears Towards Cleaner Air: Modernizing Urban Fleets for a Greener Future in India’s Million-Plus Cities

The Energy and Resources Institute | English | AcademicThink | April 25, 2025 | Pollution

In response to extreme fine particulate air pollution and its health impacts, the Indian government initiated the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) in January 2019. This program targets air quality improvement in 131 cities across 24 states, focusing on Million Plus Cities and non-attainment cities. These cities are tasked with creating city Action Plans (CAPs) that address various pollution sources like soil and road dust, vehicles, domestic fuel, municipal solid waste burning, construction materials, and industries. Transportation emissions are identified as a significant contributor to urban air pollution.

The NCAP involves urban local bodies working closely with Institutes of Repute to conduct emission inventory analyses and source apportionment studies. These studies quantify the sources of pollution, allowing cities to implement specific measures to improve air quality. The research highlights the varying contributions of different sectors to pollution levels—industrial emissions are prevalent where industries are concentrated, while transport emissions dominate in major cities, fueled by population growth.

This study evaluates the potential of phasing out older vehicles and shifting to cleaner fuels like electric vehicles (EVs) and compressed natural gas (CNG) in India's major cities. It assesses the implications for infrastructure investment, fuel savings, electricity demand, scrapping facilities, job creation, greenhouse gas emission reductions, and air quality improvements. The findings aim to provide strategic insights for national policymakers to promote a greener future in India's urban environments.

After surviving three wars, Indus Waters Treaty finally gets the axe

Times of India | English | News | April 25, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a significant move that disrupts regulated water flow from the Indus River system to Pakistan, affecting irrigation and drinking water during peak summer. This change comes after the treaty, which has survived three wars and numerous conflicts, was long upheld largely on humanitarian grounds. The suspension halts water flow from western rivers, including the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, necessitating India to boost its water storage capabilities and advance hydro-electric projects to secure long-term water control.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has already supported India's stance on resolving disputes related to water usage and project designs through a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank. While the IWT, established in 1960, allocates eastern rivers' waters to India for unrestricted use, it primarily designates the western rivers to Pakistan, granting India rights for domestic use, irrigation, and hydro-electric power generation. However, India's water storage capacity on these rivers has not been fully utilized, with only a fraction of its potential power generation capacity having been constructed.

The decision is poised to have significant consequences for Pakistan, especially in its two provinces that rely heavily on water from the western rivers during the summer months. As India moves to increase its water management infrastructure, the geopolitical implications of this action are expected to unfold, redefining water dynamics in the region.

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