India

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Key Developments in India's Union Budget 2025: Tax Benefits, Infrastructure Investment, and Green Financing
Jan. 22, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

As India approaches the unveiling of its Union Budget 2025, significant attention is focused on the future of tax benefits crucial to foreign investment.

The impending expiration of tax exemptions for sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and pension funds has sparked concern. These exemptions, first introduced in Budget 2020, cover income from dividends, interest, and long-term capital gains on specified infrastructure investments. While the government extended the expiration date to March 31, 2025, there is an increasing chorus of voices advocating for further extensions, due to the developing nature and growth potential of India's SWF and pension fund markets.

Renowned experts, including SR Patnaik and Keyur Shah, stress the critical role these tax exemptions play in fostering investments that are vital to India's ambitious economic aspiration of becoming a $26 trillion economy. According to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, direct investments in India have surged from $3.79 billion in 2021 to $6.71 billion in 2022. Countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia are significant contributors, pledging $75 billion and $100 billion, respectively. Nonetheless, obstacles persist, notably the classification of gains from unlisted bonds as short-term capital gains, which could dissuade SWFs and pension funds seeking long-term capital gains exemptions.

A further complication is the government’s occasional history of not renewing tax incentives in certain sectors, affecting infrastructure investment and overall economic progression. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran has been vocal about corporate reluctance to accept a 2023 Budget directive mandating timely payments to micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) within 45 days for qualifying tax deductions. He underscores the financial instability and credit risks MSMEs face from delayed payments, criticizing large corporations for exploiting MSMEs as a source of working capital. This tax regulation on actual payments is viewed as essential to overcoming political and corporate resistance.

Nageswaran also highlights the broader corporate stance impacting key stakeholders like employees, pointing out that stagnant wages could reduce consumer demand, thereby negating corporate financial gains. His observations reflect the Indian government's determination to bolster MSMEs and foster equitable economic development.

Further, the Indian government is contemplating initiatives to strengthen green financing in the forthcoming budget, potentially through a new credit guarantee fund. Administered by public sector entities, this fund aims to guarantee loans for those shifting to cleaner energy sources, thereby reducing both interest rates and carbon emissions. Multilateral agencies might support this initiative, which would encompass regulations and conditions for loan classification. This measure aligns with the recommendations of the Reserve Bank of India's deputy governor concerning heightened credit risks associated with emerging green technologies.

Additionally, the finance minister has suggested developing a climate finance taxonomy to incentivize investment in climate adaptation and mitigation, in harmony with India's climate goals. A working group from state-run banks has proposed expanding sustainable finance, a recommendation likely to influence the upcoming budget.

In pursuit of meeting India's net-zero emissions target by 2070, an estimated $10.1 trillion in investment is necessary, leaving a current funding gap of $3.5 trillion. As these discussions form the core of strategic planning, the Union Budget 2025 is poised to set the tone for future financial policies and economic direction.
RG Kar Medical College Case Verdict Sparks Nationwide Debate
Jan. 22, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

In a significant legal decision, a Kolkata court has sentenced Sanjay Roy, a former police volunteer, to life imprisonment for the brutal rape and murder of a 31-year-old junior doctor at RG Kar Medical College and Hospital on August 9.

Despite fervent appeals from the public and the victim's family for the death penalty, the judge deemed it inappropriate, reserving such a measure for only the "rarest of the rare" cases. Maintaining his innocence, Roy plans to appeal the decision.

The verdict has provoked strong reactions, particularly from the victim's parents and the medical community, who consider the sentence inadequate given the crime's severity. Their displeasure has fueled widespread protests, emphasizing the urgent need for stricter measures to combat violence against women in India. The medical community has called for systemic reforms, emphasizing the need for greater accountability and addressing shortcomings in both the investigative and judicial processes.

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has joined the chorus of criticism, questioning the CBI's handling of the investigation and suggesting that the Kolkata Police might have been able to secure a more severe sentence. Both she and the Trinamool Congress have voiced demands for the death penalty, articulating the public's outrage and desire for justice. Banerjee has pointed to potential investigation limitations that may have influenced the court's decision.

The BJP has also decried the life sentence as a "travesty of justice," raising allegations of political interference and possible evidence tampering. They are advocating for a more thorough investigation and increased transparency, highlighting failures in law enforcement and within the judiciary.

Concurrently, civil rights groups and the medical community have expressed concerns about hospital security and the inefficiencies plaguing India's justice system. They are advocating for enhanced accountability and systemic reform rather than focusing solely on retribution. Experts caution against the broad application of the death penalty, questioning its effectiveness as a deterrent.

This case has sparked a nationwide debate on the handling of heinous crimes by the justice system, weighing punitive actions against the potential for reformative justice. It underscores significant flaws within the investigative process and intensifies calls for policy reforms and societal change to ensure safety and justice for victims. Protests continue as various stakeholders seek further legal measures and institutional changes.

Monitored Intelligence for India - Jan. 22, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Mergers between group subsidiaries finally exempt from stamp duty in Delhi?

Talwar Thakore & Associates | English | AcademicThink | Jan. 22, 2025 | UndeterminedMergers & Acquisitions

Corporate restructurings in India encounter legal challenges, particularly concerning stamp duty on court-sanctioned mergers, which vary by state. A recent ruling by the Delhi High Court in the Ambuja Cement Ltd. vs. Collector of Stamps case clarifies the implications of stamp duty for mergers between subsidiaries of a common parent under the Indian Stamp Act of 1899, referencing a 1937 exemption notification for intra-group mergers in Delhi.

Holcim (India) Private Limited challenged a stamp duty order linked to a 2011 merger sanctioned by the Delhi High Court, involving Ambuja Cements India Private Limited and Holcim India, both subsidiaries of Holderind Investment Limited. The Court addressed whether the merger constituted a conveyance under the Act and upheld the validity of the 1937 Notification exempting certain subsidiary transactions from stamp duty.

The Court determined the merger qualifies as a conveyance and rejected Holcim India's assertion that the transfer of only moveable property affects its stamp duty status, citing no legal foundation for this distinction. It affirmed the 1937 Notification's validity, confirming the merger met the necessary ownership criteria for exemption from stamp duty, countering the Collector's claims of repeal.

This ruling provides crucial clarity for mergers involving group subsidiaries, reinforcing the 1937 Notification and streamlining processes with stamp authorities that typically complicate such mergers. While discussions regarding the potential repeal of the notification continue, the decision is expected to facilitate more efficient corporate restructuring and reduce unnecessary costs.

Power, industry consumption lifts LNG imports by 27% y-o-y in 2024

Hindu Business Line | English | News | Jan. 22, 2025 | UndeterminedEnergy Prices

India's liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports surged over 27 percent year-on-year in 2024, reaching approximately 37,336 million standard cubic meters (MSCM). This increase is attributed to higher consumption across city gas distribution, power, and various industries, with record monthly imports recorded in July, October, and May. Despite a steady import level of 3,022 MSCM in December, the annual figures reflect a growth of over 18 percent, and a remarkable 39.4 percent increase compared to 2022.

Factors contributing to this rise in LNG imports include extremely low temperatures, decreasing global LNG prices, and a government mandate for optimal operation of gas-based power plants amid rising electricity demand. The average LNG import level reached 3,111 MSCM in 2024, up from 2,445 MSCM in 2023 and 2,232 MSCM in 2022. By November 2024, LNG imports fulfilled nearly 51 percent of India’s total natural gas requirements.

Total natural gas consumption in India rose by nearly 13 percent year-on-year to 66.36 billion cubic meters (BCM), with a 10 percent increase noted in the first half of fiscal year 2025. Leading organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Fitch Ratings have upgraded their growth forecasts for India's gas demand, predicting increases of 8.5 percent and around 10 percent, respectively, for the upcoming fiscal year. LNG imports are expected to grow by approximately 20 percent in fiscal year 2025, driven by escalating demand and favorable international prices, further heightening India's dependency on imported LNG.

Nine navies hold joint drills in strategic straits between Indian Ocean and the Pacific

The Hindu | English | News | Jan. 21, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

Navies from nine Indo-Pacific countries, including India, are participating in the multilateral exercise La Perouse, hosted by France in the strategic straits of Malacca, Sunda, and Lombok. The Indian Navy has deployed the guided-missile destroyer INS Mumbai for the exercise, which runs from January 16 to 24, led by the French Carrier Strike Group, including the Charles de Gaulle. The increased presence of the Chinese Navy in the region highlights the significance of these crucial waterways.

La Perouse aims to enhance maritime safety and interoperability among nations in response to potential maritime crises. The straits are vital for global trade but face risks such as maritime accidents, illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and natural disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis. Participants include Australia, Canada, France, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the U.K., and the U.S.

The exercise will employ IORIS, a communication and coordination system, to improve response efforts during crises. Training will focus on search and intervention operations against suspected illicit activities, emphasizing maritime surveillance, interdiction, and air operations. The Indian Navy's involvement underscores a commitment among like-minded nations to uphold a rules-based maritime order.

Drills will include complex exercises such as surface warfare, anti-air warfare, and tactical maneuvers, along with constabulary missions like Visit, Board, Search and Seizure (VBSS). Prior to La Perouse, the French Carrier Strike Group visited Goa and Kochi and conducted the 42nd bilateral exercise Varuna with the Indian Navy.

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