Vietnam

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Vietnam's Trade Balance Under Threat from US Tariff Policies
April 3, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Trump tariffs and their impacts on international trade practices present notable challenges for countries with existing imbalances.

**Vietnam faces significant trade risks from potential reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States.**
The US Trade Investigation Agency identified Vietnam’s notable trade deficit with the US and a higher average import tax that is 5.8% greater than that of the US, positioning the country as a likely candidate for additional tariffs under the Trump administration’s new policy. Analyses from KBSV Securities suggest that under moderate tariff scenarios, GDP could decline between 0.7% and 1.3%.

**In a more adverse scenario, tariffs on Vietnamese goods could reach levels as high as 11%, with further escalation to around 13% potentially causing a 1.5% decline in GDP.**
The sectors most vulnerable to these tariffs include electronics, machinery, textiles, footwear, and furniture, for which the US market constitutes approximately 30% of Vietnam’s total exports. These developments result from longstanding concerns over substantial trade asymmetries and the imbalance in import tax structures between the two nations.

**Recognizing these risks, the Vietnamese government is actively working to mitigate the potential impacts by striving to balance its trade with the US.**
The government is considering negotiations to adjust trade terms and reduce most-favored-nation (MFN) tariffs on specific US imports. This approach aims to boost US imports into Vietnam, alleviate the existing trade surplus, and provide Vietnamese consumers with access to a wider array of competitively priced goods.

**The potential imposition of these tariffs forms part of a broader US strategy to apply reciprocal tariffs against trading partners that impose tariffs on American goods.**
The Trump administration is set to finalize and announce its tariff policy on April 2, 2025, with Vietnam emerging as a key focus due to its current trade practices and the significant asymmetries that have been identified.
Vietnam's New Tariff Framework for Electricity Pricing and Adjustments
April 3, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Electricity regulators have introduced a new tariff framework that sets clear boundaries for electricity prices and establishes protocols for periodic adjustments.

**The government established a price framework for the average retail electricity rate under Decision No 07 signed by Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son.**
Effective from March 31, 2025, the new framework sets minimum and maximum prices at VND 1,826.22 and VND 2,444.09 per kilowatt-hour, respectively, excluding value-added tax. The framework, based on Electricity Law No 61/2024/QH15, applies to all entities engaged in electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and consumption. Although the framework maintains the price range previously set, it now provides a regulatory mechanism to adjust prices in response to significant shifts in production costs and operational expenses.

**Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) revealed that it incurred total production costs exceeding 528,600 billion VND in 2023, resulting in an average production cost of around VND 2,088.9 per kilowatt-hour.**
The company faced financial losses in electricity production and trading, with losses exceeding 34,245 billion VND in 2023 (or 21,822 billion VND when excluding other financial income), compared to nearly 36,300 billion VND in 2022. These figures support the structured approach within the pricing framework, ensuring that price adjustments accurately reflect the production cost structure and financial dynamics.

**The framework also provides a tiered pricing structure for households, setting rates from VND 1,893 per kilowatt-hour for the first 50 kWh up to VND 3,302 per kilowatt-hour for consumption of 401 kWh and above.**
As of October 2024, the average retail electricity price was approximately VND 2,103.11 per kilowatt-hour. The framework permits price adjustments every three months if production costs rise by 3% or more, although some have proposed reducing the adjustment interval to two months for a 2% or greater fluctuation. Key industry bodies, including the Vietnam Federation of Commerce and Industry, support maintaining the three-month interval to ensure data accuracy and consistency with established accounting practices.

**A new decree on the mechanism for adjusting the average retail electricity price, effective from March 28, 2025, clarifies that price adjustments may occur no more frequently than every three months.**
Under this decree, if the average price decreases by 1% or more, EVN must implement a corresponding reduction. In the case of price increases, an adjustment of between 2% and less than 5% requires EVN to prepare a price adjustment plan for the Ministry of Industry and Trade to review, while increases between 5% and less than 10% require the Ministry's approval. Increases of 10% or more necessitate a comprehensive review by multiple ministries, with any proposed changes subject to final government consideration. The decree also assigns the Ministry the responsibility of enforcing downward adjustments if EVN does not implement the required changes due to calculation errors.

**The Ministry of Industry and Trade retains the authority to recalculate and adjust the price framework when significant shifts occur in electricity production parameters and operational costs, including expenses associated with ancillary service providers.**
The Ministry submits any recalculations or adjustments to the Prime Minister for review and approval. This regulatory approach replaces the previous Decision No 02/2023/QD-TTg by establishing a structured and systematic process for revising retail electricity prices in response to evolving market conditions and cost realities.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - April 3, 2025


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Vietnam slashes duties on range of imports to head off US tariffs

Inquirer Net | English | News | April 3, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

Vietnam has announced significant reductions in import duties on various goods, including cars, liquefied gas, and certain agricultural products. This decision appears to be a strategic move to mitigate the impact of upcoming sweeping tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh indicated that the government was reviewing these levies to stimulate imports from the United States, especially in light of the growing trade deficit, which is now the third highest with any country after China and Mexico.

Effective March 31, 2025, new preferential import duty rates will be applied to items such as cars, wood, ethanol, and various fruits and nuts. Notably, the import duty on some cars will be halved, and liquefied natural gas taxes will decrease from five percent to two percent. Other reductions include a drop from 20 percent to 15 percent on frozen chicken legs and a cut from 15 percent to five percent for unshelled pistachios and almonds. Business leaders suggest that Vietnam is seeking to foster goodwill and potentially avoid harsher tariffs, even as expectations remain that tariffs will still be enacted.

As a major manufacturing hub, Vietnam has benefited from the trade tensions between the U.S. and China, resulting in a doubled trade surplus with the U.S. from 2017 to 2023. The U.S. was Vietnam's largest export market last year, and numerous American and Chinese firms have established operations there to gain access to the U.S. market. In a broader context, Vietnam's finance ministry described the recent duty changes as a response to the unpredictable global economic and geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning U.S. tariff policies.

Việt Nam áp thuế chống bán phá giá thép mạ Trung Quốc, Hàn Quốc

Vietnam imposes anti-dumping tax on galvanized steel from China and Korea

VN Express | Local Language | News | April 3, 2025 | Regulation

Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade has imposed temporary anti-dumping taxes on galvanized steel products from China and South Korea, with rates set at 37.13% and 15.67%, respectively. This marks the second anti-dumping decision on steel products in 2025, following a previous decision on February 21 that targeted hot-rolled steel coils from India and China, responding to petitions from domestic companies including Hoa Phat Group and Formosa.

The decision came after an investigation initiated at the request of five companies, including Hoa Sen Group and Nam Kim. The Ministry conducted a thorough review of the impact of dumping on local production, reflecting compliance with the Law on Foreign Trade Management. Data indicated a significant increase in imports of the affected products, with 454,000 tons imported in the 12 months leading up to March 2024, a rise of 91% year-on-year. Following the initiation of the investigation in June 2024, imports continued to surge, prompting the need for protective measures to ensure domestic industry stability.

The Ministry will continue to collaborate with relevant parties to gather data for a comprehensive assessment, ultimately leading to a final conclusion on the situation. Historically, anti-dumping taxes on galvanized steel were in place from September 2016 until May 2022. Market analysts predict that Hoa Sen Group, with a 27.6% share of the galvanized steel market, will benefit significantly from these new measures, along with other local manufacturers such as Nam Kim and Ton Dong A, as the competitive pressure decreases.

Thuế quan Mỹ chưa áp, thị trường đã phản ứng

US tariffs have not been imposed yet, but the market has reacted.

VTV News | Local Language | News | April 3, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers

Global stocks experienced an upswing on Tuesday, buoyed by a rally on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 saw a 0.55% increase, breaking a three-day losing streak. European markets opened positively after previous profit-taking, with the STOXX 600 climbing 0.7%, driven primarily by gains in pharmaceutical and technology sectors. Despite global uncertainty regarding potential new US tariffs, Asian markets also registered modest rises, although Tokyo's index remained flat following significant sell-offs in major automakers like Toyota and Honda.

Investors are on edge ahead of a critical event, dubbed "Liberation Day," scheduled for April 2, where the US President is expected to announce tariffs impacting "all countries." This announcement has generated apprehension among traders due to the ambiguity surrounding which countries and products may be affected. The uncertainty is further compounded by the President's recent warning of a possible 25% tariff on imported cars and auto parts, contributing to an overall gloomy market sentiment. Analysts caution that these potential tariffs may provoke retaliatory measures from other governments, heightening the risk of economic upheaval and recession.

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