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Trump's Inaugural Trade and Policy Overhaul Spurs Global Response
Jan. 22, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

President Donald Trump, on his inaugural day in office, deviated from expected import tariffs, choosing instead to embark on comprehensive trade reforms aimed at safeguarding American industry.

He introduced a trade memorandum that directed federal agencies to reassess US trade relations with China, Canada, and Mexico, targeting trade deficits and perceived unfair practices. Central to his strategy is the proposal to create an "External Revenue Service" to tax foreign revenues, with the goal of bolstering the US economy. This approach seeks to transition the tax burden from Americans aiding other nations to foreign goods, thereby benefitting US citizens and reviving domestic manufacturing.

The global market responded favorably to the absence of immediate tariffs, increasing investor confidence. Consequently, the US dollar depreciated against major currencies, and the MSCI global stock market index saw an increase. Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc acknowledged the US decision to revisit trade relations. The memorandum aims to address trade issues through US laws, moving away from previous tariffs on steel, aluminum, and various Chinese imports. It will also investigate China's adherence to the 2020 trade agreement, which encountered setbacks due to the pandemic. Trump suggested a possible 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if challenges related to drug trafficking and illegal immigration continue, though his preference leans towards assessment and negotiation rather than immediate tariff imposition.

Additionally, Trump revoked an executive order promoting electric vehicles on January 20, which targeted making half of US car sales electric by 2030. He directed agencies to re-evaluate emissions regulations mandating that automakers sell 30-56% electric vehicles by 2032. Criticizing electric vehicles as a threat to American manufacturing and jobs, Trump plans to repeal EPA and Department of Transportation regulations and is considering curtailing or eliminating electric vehicle incentives. While Biden's plan offered $7,500 in tax credits for new electric vehicles and $4,000 for used ones starting in 2024, Trump's team suggested reallocating these funds toward battery production and defense infrastructure, potentially reversing emissions standards to 2019 levels. Tesla's sales might be affected, though CEO Elon Musk noted that competitors may suffer more from diminishing incentives.

In assembling his cabinet, Trump selected notable wealthy individuals for key positions, collectively possessing substantial financial assets. Elon Musk, the world's richest person, is nominated to lead the Government Performance Board, intended to cut unnecessary regulations, reduce waste, and enhance efficiency. Vivek Ramaswamy, with a $1.1 billion net worth from Roivant Sciences, will aid in resource optimization, notwithstanding his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. Scott Bessent, formerly CEO of Soros Fund Management, is chosen as Secretary of the Treasury to oversee financial policy and tax reforms. Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota, is nominated for Secretary of the Interior, advocating for sustainable energy and public land management. Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, will serve as Secretary of Commerce, focusing on elevating US competitiveness. Linda McMahon, co-founder of WWE, is nominated as Secretary of Education, emphasizing vocational training and the reduction of higher education costs.

On January 21, 2024, key Vietnamese leaders, including General Secretary To Lam, President Luong Cuong, and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, congratulated Trump on becoming the 47th US president. They recognized the US as a strategic partner, accentuating the potential for strengthening Vietnam-US relations based on mutual respect for independence and sovereignty. This year marks the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Vietnam and the US and the 2nd anniversary of their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Vice President Vo Thi Anh Xuan also extended congratulations to Vice President James David Vance, reaffirming diplomatic goodwill.

Meanwhile, South Korea is initiating its largest export financial aid program, allocating 360 billion won (approximately $247.74 million USD) to support companies affected by US trade policies. This initiative addresses high tariffs on products from Mexico, Canada, and China, impacting South Korea's export-driven economy. Despite achieving a significant trade surplus with the US in 2024, sectors like textiles and battery manufacturing remain susceptible to US protectionism. The plan includes financial assistance from banks and state entities, as well as increased insurance support. The Korean Customs Service foresees a deceleration in exports due to US trade policies, spurring immediate measures to safeguard South Korean businesses.

Trump also announced the US withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, stating that it places American industries at a disadvantage while benefiting countries such as China. The withdrawal is set to come into effect in one year, signaling a major shift in US climate policy. Experts warn this could impede global climate initiatives and harm US competitiveness in renewable energy. Projections indicate rising greenhouse gas levels, posing significant challenges to environmental sustainability. This decision reflects a reluctance to engage with international climate norms and marks a notable pivot in US policy and global cooperation.

Finally, Trump communicated plans to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, potentially effective as of February 1. This aligns with his campaign promise to broadly enforce tariffs, possibly targeting select products initially. These tariffs are part of efforts to combat illegal fentanyl trafficking, a critical issue linked to increasing US overdose fatalities. Trump views tariffs as integral to his economic agenda, promoting them as tools to protect American workers and industries. Previously, he has raised tariffs on Chinese imports and hinted at similar actions against Canada and Mexico, emphasizing his willingness to impose substantial tariffs, potentially leading to trade tensions. Trump's decision to temporarily halt tariffs against China, preferring to assess China's trade agreement compliance, reflects his inclination for negotiation over immediate hardline measures. Historically, tariffs on Chinese imports rose to 25% on certain goods, with similar plans suggested for Canada and Mexico. Advocating for lower tariffs to prevent harm to American consumers, his approach faced critique for possibly diminishing US leverage in trade discussions.
Rapid Response Quells Four-Story Ho Chi Minh City Blaze
Jan. 21, 2025 | Indirect Indicator

Just before 9 p.m., a fire erupted on the first floor of a four-story house on Tran Binh Trong Street in Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City.

Local residents, including a witness named Ms. Lien, made attempts to control the flames using water hoses and mini fire extinguishers. However, the fire quickly escalated, spreading to the upper floors and even reaching the external power lines. The situation intensified with explosions being heard, prompting the evacuation of Ms. Lien's family. Fortunately, all residents, comprising 5-6 adults and children, safely exited the building, securing the door behind them.

The Binh Thanh District Fire Prevention and Rescue Police were promptly alerted and responded swiftly, arriving on the scene with multiple fire trucks and over 20 personnel. Firefighters forced their way through the rolling door to deploy hoses, ensuring there were no individuals trapped inside. They approached the inferno from multiple angles and successfully contained it within 30 minutes. Despite their efforts, the building suffered severe damage, leaving only the steel frame intact and several glass doors shattered. Nonetheless, authorities confirmed that there were no casualties. An investigation is currently underway to determine the cause of the fire.

Monitored Intelligence for Vietnam - Jan. 22, 2025


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Erudite Risk takes an all risks approach to intelligence reporting. We categorize key intelligence into one of 40 different risk intelligence categories.

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Vietnam boosts US imports as Vietjet secures Asia’s largest aircraft deal

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 22, 2025 | UndeterminedBizdev-Partnering

Vietnam is ramping up imports from the United States to stimulate economic growth and reduce its trade surplus. This move is part of a strategic partnership highlighted by billionaire Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao’s recent significant deal for Vietjet, which includes purchasing Boeing aircraft. At the "Friends of Vietnam Summit" before President Trump's return to the White House, Thao connected with global partners to strengthen economic ties.

Vietjet's order of Boeing aircraft is expected to boost bilateral trade and enhance aviation connectivity in Vietnam. The company has confirmed a deal for 14 Boeing 737 Max deliveries slated for 2025, building on a prior agreement of 100 planes from 2017. Valued at approximately $20 billion, this order is a landmark moment in Vietnam’s aviation history and represents Asia's largest Boeing 737 Max order.

In 2024, Vietnam's imports from the US surpassed $15.1 billion, reflecting a 9.4% increase from the previous year. Key imports featured electronics, machinery, animal feed, and raw plastics, while cotton and chemical imports declined. To address the substantial trade surplus of $104.4 billion in 2024 and to avoid risks of being labeled a currency manipulator, Vietnam is increasing imports of essential goods and partnering with major US companies.

E-commerce platforms face new verification requirements under draft law

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Jan. 22, 2025 | Regulation

Vietnam's B2C e-commerce market was valued at $25 billion in 2024, facing challenges in regulatory enforcement related to online transactions. Authorities struggle to trace warehouses or sellers involved in misconduct due to inadequate electronic identification and lack of comprehensive oversight, resulting in fraud and tax evasion. Consumers experience issues with transparency regarding product details, seller information, and dispute resolution.

To address these challenges, the Ministry has proposed new regulations for cross-border e-commerce. These regulations aim to clarify e-commerce business models, outline participant responsibilities, and enhance oversight. The draft law mandates that sellers using intermediary platforms verify their identities according to electronic identification standards, providing essential information like names, addresses, and tax codes.

The proposed regulations require businesses engaged in cross-border e-commerce to obtain permits from the Ministry of Industry and Trade and establish representative offices in Vietnam or appoint local legal representatives. These representatives will verify foreign sellers and compensate buyers in case of misconduct. Despite existing guidelines, the Ministry asserts these regulations are inadequate, as many cross-border platforms operate without official legal compliance, creating an uneven competitive landscape against domestic entities.

Ngân hàng Trung ương Nhật Bản sẵn sàng tăng lãi suất cao nhất trong 17 năm

Bank of Japan poised to raise interest rates to highest level in 17 years

24H | Local Language | News | Jan. 22, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to raise interest rates to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, signaling a monetary policy shift amid uncertainties related to Donald Trump's upcoming policies. The increase in short-term rates from 0.25% to 0.5% is aimed at stabilizing the economy and achieving a 2% inflation target, representing the first rate hike since July that previously surprised global markets. Positive wage growth and stable inflation expectations, as noted by Governor Kazuo Ueda and board members, have influenced this decision.

While the rate hike is likely, external risks—particularly from Trump's trade and economic policies—could destabilize financial markets. Domestic challenges, including Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's struggles with budget approval and the upcoming upper house elections in July, may also affect the BOJ's decision-making.

The anticipated rate rise aims to combat prolonged low inflation, though it might raise borrowing costs, impacting both businesses and consumers. Past rate hikes in 2006-2007 serve as reminders of the dangers posed by slowing economic growth and potential deflation, urging the BOJ to proceed with caution. Market reactions have already begun, with the yen strengthening and an 80% probability of the rate hike already priced in. Investors remain focused on future rate hike signals following the meeting, while the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies looms over global financial markets.

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