South Korea

Intelligence for Better Decision Making

Han Duck-soo's Veto Deliberations Stir Political Tensions in South Korea
Dec. 20, 2024 | Indirect Indicator

Acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo is currently deliberating a veto on several policy bills, notably the contentious Grain Law recently passed by the opposition-controlled National Assembly.

The ruling party adamantly opposes this law and is advocating for a veto. This situation has prompted the government to reassess these bills, ensuring they align with constitutional mandates and public interests. An extraordinary Cabinet meeting is planned to make final decisions following the National Assembly's approval.

The Grain Act Amendment presents Han with a significant opportunity to exercise his veto power for the first time. While the ruling party engages in dialogue with opposition members to foster cooperation, the potential veto adds uncertainty to the outcome. This is particularly pertinent given the two special prosecutor bills passed on December 12, which face a veto deadline of January 1. Compounding this situation are ongoing impeachment proceedings against President Yoon and conflicting political interests. Meetings between party leaders are indicative of the tense political climate as Han navigates state affairs amidst potential veto repercussions and the impeachment process.

Han is also expected to seek reconsideration of other controversial bills. Besides the Grain Management Act, these include amendments to the National Assembly Act, the National Assembly Testimony Appraisal Act, and various agricultural acts. A special Cabinet session will establish the government's position on six contentious bills previously opposed by the administration. The Ministry’s request for a veto has led to ongoing communication with opposition parties to avert potential state disruptions.

The special prosecutor law concerning Kim Kun-hee presents a politically sensitive issue with a looming veto deadline of January 1, 2024. The Democratic Party of Korea anticipates a veto and is preparing to respond forcefully, possibly with impeachment actions. The government is working to complete its review before the holiday, focusing on constitutional compliance while addressing concerns about significant taxpayer spending on rice overproduction amid declining consumption.

Han has adopted a strategic approach, distinguishing between 'policy bills' and 'political (investigation) bills.' The business community opposes the National Assembly Testimony Appraisal Act due to trade secret risks, though it appears unlikely that the government will veto the Insurrection Special Prosecutors Act. Nonetheless, the controversial Kim Kun-hee bill raises concerns about potential political fallout, with the opposition Democratic Party preparing for possible impeachment proceedings against Han if he acts contrary to their interests.

On December 18, a confrontation erupted between the ruling People Power Party and the Democratic Party of Korea over Han's veto power. The ruling party deems vetoes constitutionally necessary, while the Democratic Party accuses Han of potentially exceeding his authority, warning that such actions could lead to impeachment. Democratic Party leaders argue Han should focus on stabilizing state affairs rather than exercising presidential powers and advise avoiding vetoes to prevent abuse of authority and constitutional conflicts.

Despite the firm stances held by both parties, Han continues to deliberate on vetoes for specific bills, striving to maintain an open dialogue and promote compromise. The Grain Management Act is among the primary concerns, with potential market disruptions and financial burdens at stake. Han has criticized other agricultural-related amendments for their potential to cause market and financial instability and has raised alarms about privacy risks linked to the National Assembly Testimony Appraisal Act and trade secret disclosures.
Korean Won Plummets Amidst Market Turbulence and Martial Law
Dec. 20, 2024 | Indirect Indicator

The South Korean won has experienced a significant decline against the US dollar since the imposition of martial law on December 3, leading to notable financial market volatility.

The exchange rate fell sharply from 1,402.9 won to 1,435.5 won per dollar by December 18. This depreciation has raised concerns among businesses and individuals, prompting financial companies to reevaluate their risk management strategies and implement stricter capital stability measures.

Financial institutions are now facing increased demands for risk-weighted capital due to the won's decline. KB Financial Group and Hana Financial Group each anticipate capital requirement increases of KRW 500 billion, while Woori Financial Group foresees a rise between KRW 400 to 500 billion. Despite these challenges, individual banks report stable foreign currency liquidity, maintaining coverage ratios above government standards. However, they are also preparing for potential difficulties, particularly concerning foreign currency loans. They are implementing contingency plans to support small and medium-sized enterprises affected by currency fluctuations, such as extending loan maturities and enhancing foreign currency trading.

The devaluation of the won can be attributed to several factors, including geopolitical events like President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and a recent Federal Reserve rate cut. As the currency opened at 1,453 per dollar, the lowest since March 2009, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok warned of heightened volatility in South Korea's financial and foreign exchange markets.

The breach of 1,450 won per dollar for the first time since the 2009 financial crisis underscores the ongoing challenges for the South Korean economy. The Federal Reserve's recent decisions, perceived as hawkish, and President Yoon's martial law declaration are driving factors behind the won's weakness. Financial Services Commission Chairman Kim Byung-hwan has urged financial institutions to adjust foreign currency loans and settlements to help ease the financial burden on companies. In response to the volatility, Financial Supervisory Service Governor Lee Bok-hyun has emphasized the necessity for institutions to reassess emergency strategies for effectively managing instability.

The South Korean government and financial authorities are actively taking steps to stabilize the markets amidst increased volatility and are urging market participants to remain calm. Governor Lee underscored the significance of this period for economic stability, calling for swift market stabilization initiatives based on prepared response plans. He highlighted the importance of monitoring the impact of base rate cuts on lending rates to ensure rational lending practices amid the heightened market turbulence.

Monitored Intelligence for South Korea - Dec. 20, 2024


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Korea turns to U.S. for LNG in move to curb Middle East reliance

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Dec. 20, 2024 | Shifting Geopolitical Alliances

Korea Gas Corp. (Kogas), South Korea's state-run gas supplier and a major global liquefied natural gas (LNG) buyer, will now procure LNG from multiple U.S. companies, shifting away from traditional Middle Eastern suppliers. This strategy aims to boost imports from the U.S., reduce South Korea's trade surplus with America, and diversify energy sources.

Kogas’s long-term contracts with Oman and Qatar will expire by the end of 2024. The selection of U.S. bidders is designed to replace these agreements, although Kogas cannot disclose the chosen companies until the bidding process concludes next year. Qatar historically supplied around 4.9 million tons of LNG annually, while Oman provided about 4.1 million tons since the late 1990s.

The pivot toward U.S. LNG is expected to be influenced by anticipated diplomatic pressures from the incoming Donald Trump administration, which is likely to promote increased energy imports from the U.S. Kogas previously secured around 11 trillion won ($7.8 billion) in contracts with U.S. suppliers during Trump's first term. Additionally, reports indicate that U.S.-sourced LNG may be more competitively priced than traditional Middle Eastern sources, further motivating this change. Last year, Kogas was South Korea's largest LNG importer, bringing in a total of 44.12 million tons.

North Korea criticizes U.S. and South Korea for condemning its military ties with Russia

Joongang Ilbo | English | News | Dec. 20, 2024 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

North Korea has condemned the joint statement from the U.S., South Korea, and other nations criticizing its military cooperation with Russia. A North Korean foreign ministry spokesperson accused these countries of "distorting and slandering" what they claim is a "normal" partnership with Moscow, following strong condemnations of their military collaboration.

North Korea defends its alliance with Russia as a legitimate response to perceived U.S. threats but avoids acknowledging the deployment of troops to Russia or the casualties they have suffered. The spokesperson claimed that the actions of the U.S. and its allies threaten international peace and security, framing their criticism as politically motivated.

The North views the negative reactions from the West as confirmation of the effectiveness of its military ties with Russia. Reports suggest that over 10,000 North Korean troops have been sent to assist in the war in Ukraine, raising concerns of escalating conflict. The U.S. has confirmed significant casualties among these troops, estimating around 200 soldiers from both Russia and North Korea killed in combat against Ukrainian forces.

정부, 아세안+3에 "불확실한 시기 경제 상황 공유...협력 강화"

Government, ASEAN+3: "Share economic situation during uncertain times...strengthen cooperation"

Money Today | Local Language | News | Dec. 20, 2024 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Choi Ji-young, Director General for International Economic Management at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, led the 'ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Deputy Central Bank Governors' Meeting' in Pyeongchang on the 17th and 18th. The meeting aimed to share economic insights amid uncertainty and boost regional financial cooperation, marking Korea's final co-chair event of the year.

Various organizations, including AMRO, IMF, and ADB, reported on economic trends and risks, projecting solid growth in the regional economy but cautioning about potential downsides due to external changes, such as a new U.S. administration. The Korean delegation emphasized the need for accurate assessments of economic conditions among member countries, noting the stabilization of Korea's financial and foreign exchange markets.

The meeting also advanced financial cooperation, particularly enhancing the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM). A detailed operation plan for a Rapid Financing Program was finalized, and discussions on restructuring the multilateral currency swap system began. A working group led by the Bank of Korea was approved to address the financial resource structure.

In response to the growing digital financial transformation, the Korean delegation highlighted the importance of risk analysis and response measures while promoting the development of a regional digital bond market. They expressed intent to lead future financial cooperation initiatives in this area.

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