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India sees an upward economic growth target revision with a warning on Trump tariffs

The Economic Times | English | News | Nov. 27, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

India's GDP growth target for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, has been revised upward by 0.5 percentage points to 6.5%, driven by strong economic performance indicators such as industrial production reaching a five-quarter high and record new vehicle registrations. The improvement is attributed largely to reforms in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) system, which began on September 22, lowering product prices, easing business operations, and reducing policy uncertainty.

Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran highlighted India’s economy surpassing the $3.9 trillion GDP mark as it moves toward becoming the world’s fifth largest economy and aims to cross $4 trillion in FY26. The GDP growth in Q1 was 7.8%, with forecasts for Q2 growth ranging between 7.3% and 7.9% based on rural demand, government spending, and export activity. However, the positive effects of GST reforms are expected to diminish by the final quarter of the fiscal year.

Looking ahead to FY27, BMI revised India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.1%, supported by increased government spending, lower policy rates, and investments in data centers driven by the US-led AI boom. Despite these prospects, BMI cautioned about the negative impact of US tariffs on Indian exports implemented in August. These tariffs are projected to slow growth by 0.4 percentage points between FY25/26 and FY26/27, with additional risks tied to India potentially forgoing cheaper Russian energy supplies due to sanctions.

Economic challenges also include a likely marginal shortfall in tax collections this fiscal year due to GST rate cuts, income tax relief, and global headwinds affecting corporate earnings. Indian refiners have ceased purchasing oil from US-sanctioned Russian companies, shifting to alternatives from the Middle East and the Americas, reducing their dependence on Russian oil significantly after the November sanctions wind-down period.

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