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Why the Ukraine war works in China’s favour

The Interpreter | English | AcademicThink | Dec. 12, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes

China benefits politically and economically from Russia’s isolation following the Ukraine war, showing little urgency to push Moscow to end its military operations. Before the conflict escalated, Europe was Russia’s main trading partner, especially for energy, but the EU’s sanctions and energy cutoff have forced Russia to pivot towards China, selling natural gas to Beijing at prices much lower than those charged to Europe. This shift has made China a major buyer of Russian fossil fuels and allowed Beijing to strengthen its economic presence in Russia, becoming a key exporter of goods such as cars and beer amid the exit of Western brands.

Militarily, Russia increasingly relies on China, as evidenced by joint military drills and speculated cooperation in drone production and key component supply. However, Moscow has grown dependent on Beijing, even planning to cede development rights to Chinese investors for rare-earth metal deposits in Siberia in exchange for infrastructure projects. This dependency places China in a dominant position in the relationship, with Beijing maintaining a neutral stance on Ukraine while economically exploiting Russia’s vulnerabilities.

Despite China's pivotal role, it has limited interest or capacity to decisively end or freeze the Ukraine conflict. During recent diplomatic engagements, China supported peaceful efforts without explicitly backing Russia’s goals. Meanwhile, Russia remains economically tied to China but looks towards the United States for a peace resolution, even as Moscow fears China’s growing influence and possible territorial ambitions in its Far East. The Kremlin is caught between reliance on China and a desire to balance its partnership by improving ties with the U.S.

Amid this geopolitical tension, China is likely to continue leveraging Russia’s weakened state to expand its influence at minimal cost. With Washington’s strategic focus shifting more towards the Indo-Pacific and China, Russia’s options are constrained, enabling Beijing to strengthen its position as the dominant partner in the Moscow-Beijing relationship while benefiting from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

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