Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea

Vietnam Net - E | English | News | Nov. 7, 2025 | UndeterminedEconomic Growth

Vietnam's consumer spending is projected to grow strongly in 2026, supported by rising household incomes, robust tourism, and stable inflation despite global trade challenges. BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, forecasts real household spending to increase by 7.2% year-on-year to 3.95 quadrillion VND (152 billion USD), rebounding significantly from pre-pandemic levels of 2.77 quadrillion VND in 2019. This spending growth aligns with an expected GDP growth rate of 7.2% for Vietnam in 2026.

Inflation is predicted to average 3.5% in 2026, maintaining the government’s target range of 3–5%, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 2.1%, one of the lowest in nearly six years. The tight labor market is anticipated to boost real wages, thereby underpinning consumer purchasing power and spending. Retail activity remains strong through 2025, with nominal retail sales nearly 60% higher than pre-pandemic levels as of September, and real sales up 30% compared to 2019.

However, Vietnam faces risks from currency depreciation, with the dong expected to weaken by approximately 5.5% against the US dollar in 2026. This could increase the cost of imports, putting upward pressure on domestic prices and slightly diminishing household purchasing power. The currency decline may also prompt the State Bank of Vietnam to tighten credit policies. Despite these risks, consumer lending has grown significantly, reaching around 150 billion USD by the end of 2022, equivalent to 40% of GDP.

Overall, despite external uncertainties including escalating trade barriers, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures, Vietnam’s domestic demand and consumer spending are expected to remain resilient. Consumers are anticipated to increase their spending with a larger share directed towards discretionary items, supported by stable economic fundamentals and a strengthening tourism sector.