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Joint military exercises signal deepening Russia-China strategic alignment
MERICS | English | AcademicThink | May 9, 2025 | Geopolitical Conflict and Disputes
Russia and China are increasingly enhancing their military and defense cooperation, notably through joint military exercises, institutional partnerships, and technological collaboration. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, joint exercises have intensified, with more than 90 held since 2003, a significant portion occurring post-February 2022. In 2024 alone, 11 joint exercises were conducted, marking the most extensive collaboration in a single year. These exercises have become more sophisticated and strategic, focusing on regions experiencing maritime tensions, such as the Yellow Sea and the South China Sea. Major developments in 2024 included their inaugural joint naval patrol in the Arctic and coast guard cooperation.
The deepening military ties are also reflected in advancements in defense technology and the coordinated production of military equipment, including helicopters and missiles. However, a shift in the power dynamic is evident, as China's military capabilities continue to grow while Russia's are hampered by ongoing conflicts. China's increasing self-sufficiency in military production has led to a decline in its arms imports from Russia, which once supported the modernization of the People's Liberation Army. Despite Russian arms still constituting a large portion of China's military imports, their overall significance in China's military advancement is diminishing.
Looking ahead, several critical issues will shape the future of Russia-China defense relations. The trajectory of joint military exercises will play a key role in their operational effectiveness and regional deterrence capabilities. Additionally, the decline in Russian arms exports could redefine global defense markets, affecting Russia's foreign policy and revenue streams. The extent of China’s military support for Russia will be crucial for both countries' military strengths and their broader geopolitical relationships, especially with the EU and NATO. Furthermore, the growing imbalance in military power, with Russia's decline and China's ascent, could lead to tensions in their relationship, prompting China to seek military concessions from Russia in exchange for support in conflicts, such as maintaining energy supplies in potential Taiwan-related conflicts.