Crisis Management for a Conflict with North Korea
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非農業部門雇用者数は前月差＋17.7万人
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 177,000 from the previous month
Daiwa Institute of Research | Local Language | AcademicThink | May 9, 2025 | UndeterminedEmployment
The US employment statistics for April 2025 indicate a non-farm payroll increase of 177,000, which exceeded market expectations of 138,000. However, this growth represents a slowdown from previous months, with past figures undergoing downward revisions. The three-month moving average stands at 100,000, reflecting reduced momentum compared to late last year. Despite a constrained government sector and a sharp decrease in the influx of illegal immigrants impacting labor supply, this growth pace is viewed as solid.
The household survey revealed a continued increase in unemployment due to layoffs, yet the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. Overall, April's employment statistics are considered solid, though there is concern about how additional tariff measures might negatively affect the market in the future. Starting from April 5, a baseline tariff of 10% was implemented on all countries, with additional tariffs on China that have been softened in application but still result in higher effective rates than before.
The potential for economic slowdown and increasing employment risks is present if these tariffs remain in effect. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain the policy interest rate at its May 6th and 7th meeting, as they monitor both economic conditions and inflation. While the recent employment data is positive and tariff impact has been limited so far, immediate interest rate reductions by the Fed are unlikely.