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Global trade expected to exceed $35T in 2025
The Manila Times | English | News | Dec. 12, 2025 | UndeterminedTrade Issues and Numbers
Global trade in 2025 is projected to surpass $35 trillion for the first time, marking an increase of about $2.2 trillion or roughly 7 percent compared to 2024, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad). East Asia and Africa were the main drivers of this growth, while US imports remained strong and Chinese imports lagged. Goods trade is expected to rise by 6 percent, contributing around $1.5 trillion, and services will increase by nearly 9 percent, accounting for about $750 billion.
Trade expansion continued through the latter half of 2025 despite challenges such as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven global demand. The growth rate slowed in the third quarter but still showed a 2.5 percent increase from April to June. Manufacturing grew by 10 percent over the last year, mainly driven by electronics linked to artificial intelligence, whereas automotive trade declined by 4 percent.
Looking ahead to 2026, Unctad forecasts weaker growth due to slower global economic activity, rising debt levels, increased trade costs, and ongoing uncertainty. Geopolitical fragmentation and heightened vulnerabilities are also expected to negatively impact trade performance in the coming year.